BOXING DAY BETTING GUIDE – MCB’s Premier League preview

There are invariably some thunderous local derbies and often a few strange results on Boxing Day.

There are some vital games affecting the top and bottom of the table, with Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester City all looking to have winnable games, while leaders Chelsea host fourth-placed London rivals West Ham United in the game of the day. Here’s our betting preview for the Boxing Day clashes in the Premier League

CHELSEA v WEST HAM UNITED

Mourino
Top of the table: Jose Mourinho

Chelsea (Odds: 1.34) are still the team to beat in the Premier League. They have won every home game, scoring at least twice on each occasion and have lost just once to fourth-placed West Ham (10.00) in the last 13 meetings at Stamford Bridge. It is the longest streak in Hammers’ history without a win there. The draw is 5.30.

West Ham have lost once in their last 11 league games but have won just one of the last 17 meetings with Chelsea. One or other failed to score in four of last five meetings – it is 1.78 for one or other to draw a blank and 2.02 that both find the net – and while some will be looking for a shock result, plenty points to West Ham being put firmly in their place. They will start to come down with the Christmas decorations.

VERDICT: Chelsea 3 West Ham 0 @ 15.50

BEST BET: West Ham not to score @ 1.93

BURNLEY v LIVERPOOL

Dyche
Improvement: Burnley boss Sean Dyche

Burnley (4.60) have been creating plenty of chances and should have got more out of recent games with QPR and Tottenham – yet they lost both and are in the bottom three. They have managed just one win in their last five and have two home victories all season.

Inconsistent Liverpool (1.80) have won three of the last nine meetings with Burnley and have won two of their last nine games after a late goal saved two points against Arsenal on Sunday. The draw is on offer at 3.60. There are rarely too many goals in this fixture – one or other failed to score in eight of last 10 meetings (it is a massive 2.08 for one or other to fail to register and 1.73 that both net) and we expect another low-scoring game, one that Liverpool can win.

VERDICT: Burnley 0 Liverpool 2 @ 8.40

BEST BET: Second Half – first goal Liverpool @ 1.86

CRYSTAL PALACE v SOUTHAMPTON

Neil Warnock
Under pressure: Palace boss Neil Warnock

Southampton (2.16) ended a run of four consecutive league defeats when thumping Everton last weekend and, given their recent record against Palace (3.60) – five wins from six meetings – they may well maintain their momentum. They have only won three of eight on the road, however. The draw is 3.20.

Palace have lost half their games at home (winning twice and drawing twice) and have just one victory in their last 11 league games. That is relegation form, but they remain out of the bottom three on goal difference. There has been a positive outcome in eight of last 10 meetings (it is 1.36 that either palace or Southampton win on the Double Chance market) and the last seven meetings were won to nil. Ten of the last 13 meetings saw less than three total goals – it is 1.73 that over two goals will be scored this time – and that may well be the case again, with the Saints having the class to prevail.

VERDICT: Crystal Palace 0 Southampton 1 @ 6.00

BEST BET: Half-Time Draw @ 2.02

EVERTON v STOKE

Roberto Martinez
Worried look: Roberto Martinez

Everton (1.78) have managed just two wins in their last eight and were dreadful in their 3-0 defeat at Southampton on Saturday. Yet their record against Stoke (4.80) is excellent, with The Potters having won just twice on their last 22 trips to Goodison Park.

Stoke have won two of their nine games on the road and have beaten Everton just twice in the last 17 meetings. There have been three draws in the last five meetings – he draw is available at 3.55 –and nine of the last 10 meetings saw less than three total goals. It is 1.80 that under 2.5 total goals are scored. Everton have lost just two at home and they may well sneak it.

VERDICT: Everton 1 Stoke 0 @ 6.20

BEST BET: Stoke not to score @ 2.30

LEICESTER v TOTTENHAM

nigel pearson
Concerned: Nigel Pearson

There is a fair chance that Nigel Pearson could be out of the door should rock-bottom Leicester (3.80) lose their sixth successive game and tenth in 11. They looked lively at West Ham on Saturday, but their failure to convert some great chances ultimately cost them.

Tottenham (2.30) have lost three of the last six meetings with Leicester yet they have won four of their last eight away games – all four victories coming with goals in the last two minutes. The draw is on offer at 3.40). Expect plenty of goals (eight of the last nine meetings saw more than two goals) but the Foxes might earn a valuable point.

VERDICT: Leicester 2 Tottenham 2 @ 12.5

BEST BET: Both teams to score @ 1.69

MANCHESTER UNITED v NEWCASTLE UNITED

Louis Van Gaal
Turning it round: Van Gaal

Manchester United (1.39) are in the top three and Louis van Gaal appears to have turned things round after a sticky start with three wins in their first 10 games. After six straight wins, they were held by Aston Villa on Saturday but should take all three points from a Newcastle (8.40) side who have won one of their last 30 visits to Old Trafford. The draw is on offer at 4.90.

Newcastle enter this on the back on an unwelcome record – they lost to Sunderland for a fourth successive occasion on Sunday. Alan Pardew’s side have won just two of the last 25 meetings and while they may well net (it is 1.65 that they do register), as they have in four of their last five away games, ultimately the hosts should have their measure.

VERDICT: Man Utd 3 Newcastle 1 @ 9.60

BEST BET: Man Utd to lead at Half-Time @ 1.82

SUNDERLAND v HULL CITY

Gus Poyet 1
Pointing up: Gus Poyet

Hull (4.00) have been dropping like a stone since beating Crystal Place in October. They have lost six and drawn four subsequently, with one point taken from 12 at home. Their sole victory on the road came at QPR on opening day and Steve Bruce must fear the worst, despite having won the last three meetings with Sunderland (2.02).

The Black Cats, buoyant after beating Newcastle in the Tyne-Wear derby, have won six of the previous nine meetings with Hull and have lost just four times this season. They are still just four points off the relegation places, however, thanks to 10 draws in 17. There has been no draw in this fixture, so it is high time honours should be shared and it is 3.20 that this will be the case.

VERDICT: Sunderland 1 Hull 1 @ 6.00

BEST BET: Hull to score first goal @ 2.34

SWANSEA CITY v ASTON VILLA

Garry Monk
Going well: Garry Monk’s Swansea

Swansea (1.73) have lost just twice at home this season and have never lost at home to Aston Villa (5.20). After two defeats, Gary Monk’s side got back on track with a 1-0 win at Hull on Saturday and are sitting comfortably in eight place in the table. The draw is on offer at 3.60.

Aston Villa, who won three of the last 10 meetings with the Swans, have eased their way out of relegation trouble after one defeat in their last eight league games, capped by a gritty draw with Manchester United last weekend. They have three road wins (all 0-1), but may well have to settle for a point, which has happened on three of the last six meetings.

VERDICT: Swansea 0 Aston Villa 0 @ 9.20

BEST BET: Half-Time Draw @ 2.16

WEST BROMWICH ALBION v MANCHESTER CITY

Allan Irvine
Grim: Allan Irvine

Alan Irvine is under pressure and is favourite to get the axe in the Premier League sack race market. West Brom (6.60) threw away a two-goal lead at QPR on Saturday and have one win from their last seven league games. They have also managed just one win against City (1.54) in the last 10 meetings.

City, unbeaten in the last eight meetings (winning seven), have won their last six league games and the champions are now hot on the heels of leaders Chelsea. Thought bereft of strikers, it did not faze them against Crystal Palace and they won’t be short of a goal or two here. So we can probably rule out the draw at 4.10. Eight of the last 11 meetings saw more than two goals and that trend should continue. The odds for more than 2.5 total goals are 1.86.

VERDICT: West Brom 1 Man City 3 @ 13.00

BEST BET: HT/FT Draw-Man City @ 4.30

ARSENAL v QUEENS PARK RANGERS

Redknapp2
Recovery: Harry Redknapp and QPR

Following their draw at Anfield on Sunday, Arsenal (1.27) are still four points behind fourth-placed West Ham and won’t be in the Champions League places after this round of fixtures. They will be at the end of the season, however, and there is no shame backing odds-on certainties. To keep in the hunt, they will have to beat a QPR (13.00) side they have drawn with in seven of the last 14 meetings. The draw is on offer at 5.90.

Rangers failed to score in five of last six trips to Arsenal and they have won just one of the last 14 there. Harry Redknapp’s side have lost all of their last eight road games and have registered one goal in three of those eight games. Arsenal’s defence is hardly watertight, but we take the Gunners to eke a narrow win.

VERDICT: Arsenal 2 QPR 0 @ 6.60

BEST BET: Half-Time Draw @ 2.78

All odds quoted from lingfieldfc.myclubbetting.co.uk

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STOKE CITY v CHELSEA: MCB’s Premier League Betting Preview

Stoke City v Chelsea

Monday, 8.00pm

Mourino
The master: Jose Mourinho

Can the odds-on Premier League favourites do it on a cold and rainy night in Stoke?

It’s a well-worn and undeserved cliché. After all, there is a lot to be said for a night out in the Potteries. But could Stoke do what they did to Arsenal and catch the Blues cold?

Not on Jose Mourinho’s watch.

While Chelsea have won just one of their last four trips to Stoke (drawing two and losing 3-2 last December), they have won five of the last six meetings without conceding and have won 12 of the last 16 meetings. They are 1.61 to win on Monday night.

This is perhaps the easiest of the weekend fixtures to fathom. Stoke, on offer at 6.00, will huff and puff, they will have their moments, but ultimately class will tell and Chelsea will win without coming out of second gear. The draw is on offer at 3.90.

The biggest question is: by how far will they win the Premier League?

Chelsea face a more challenging festive period than some of their rivals, with West Ham, Southampton and Tottenham on the horizon, but should come through it relatively unscathed. It is possible that a draw or two may see their title odds drift.

Equally, with Manchester City facing something of an injury crisis, Mourinho smells blood in the water and backers should take note: Chelsea could easily assert and draw clear. Now is the time to get on.

You can make the case that Chelsea’s focus is firmly on the Champions League, yet it is a guarantee that the Special One will win the domestic league with whichever team he coaches in his second full season at the helm.

Stoke do not have the cutting edge up front to unduly trouble Chelsea’s defence and the Potters’ defence has conceded twice in each of the last three home games.

Stoke have been easy on the eye and Mark Hughes has made some very shrewd purchases.

Currently 12th, they may well finish in the top half of the table.

There are rarely many goals when these two meet. Six of the last nine clashes saw less than three goals and it is 1.83 for under 2.5 goals to be scored. Yet it often pays to go against the grain and while we can’t see anything other than a Chelsea win, we can see the net bulging a few times – it is 2.04 that over 2.5 goals will be scored.

VERDICT: Stoke 1 Chelsea 3 (Correct Score Odds: 14.00)

 

All odds quoted from shorehamfc.myclubbetting.co.uk

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LIVERPOOL v ARSENAL: MCB’s Premier League Betting Preview

Liverpool v Arsenal

Sunday, 4.00pm

wenger
Celebrating: Arsene Wenger

February seems like a very long time ago if you are a Liverpool fan. The 5-1 humiliation of Arsenal was one of the many high points of Brendan Rodgers’ short tenure at Anfield, one that might come to an end very soon.

After a quartet of trend-friendly matches from which they picked up seven points, they were dumped out of the Champions League and then thumped 3-0 by Manchester United. They have lost seven Premier League games and are in the bottom half of the table, having shipped more goals than they have scored.

And despite that thumping at Anfield last season, Arsenal are not the most welcome opponent Rodgers would wish for. Liverpool have managed just three wins in the last 18 meetings with the Gunners.

Liverpool beat Bournemouth in the Capital One Cup on Wednesday, which will have boosted their confidence. Yet they still looked very ropey at the back and are 2.78 to beat the Gunners.

While the fixture list over the Christmas period gives the beleaguered Liverpool boss some hope for respite, facing three-win Burnley, slumping Swansea and bottom-of-the-table Leicester, Rodgers knows that he is on borrowed time unless things improve drastically.

While 375/1 to be relegated may be a little extreme, it looks a better value bet than the current 6/1 for the Reds to finish in the top four.

In contrast, and despite their lousy record against the cream of the Premier League, Arsenal look nailed-on for a top four finish. Though currently 13 points behind Chelsea, they are just two points off the Champions League places and there is no shame lumping on at short odds, given their record. They are 2.50 to win at Anfield. The draw is on offer at 3.40.

Liverpool have won two of their last eight league games and have managed to be in front at half-time just three times in 16 games (they went on to win all three). Conversely, they have been behind at the interval on four occasions – and lost all four matches.

The Gunners, who have won four of the last six meetings, arrive at Anfield on the back of five wins and three defeats in their last eight. They have not been great travellers, winning just three on the road this term (at Aston Villa, Sunderland and West Brom).

Anfield is not the fortress it once was. Steven Gerrard looks laboured, the defence is suspect and a change of goalkeeper from Simon Mignolet to journeyman Brad Jones – who has had spells with Middlesbrough, Blackpool, Stockport, Sheffield Wednesday and Rotherham – appears a mere plaster on a fatal wound.

There should be a few goals in this, as there invariably is in this fixture (both sides registered in 17 of the last 21 meetings) – it is 2.98 for there to be over 3.5 total goals – and this could be a pivotal game for Liverpool. A win could see a surge in form. Defeat could spell the beginning of the end for Rodgers.

VERDICT: Liverpool 2 Arsenal 1 (Correct Score Odds: 8.60)

All odds quoted from shorehamfc.myclubbetting.co.uk

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NEWCASTLE UNITED v SUNDERLAND: MCB’s Premier League Betting Preview

Newcastle United v Sunderland

Sunday, 1.30pm

Alan Pardew
Big contract: Alan Pardew

It is a long, fascinating and intense rivalry, with a red card shown in three of the last six meetings. There is plenty at stake in the Tyne-Wear derby this time round, too.

Newcastle are three points off the Europa League places, while Sunderland are two points off the relegation zone, despite having lost just four league games.

The Magpies have won six of their last nine league games, while Sun-draw-land have drawn 10 of their 16 games, winning just twice. The draw is on offer at 3.30.

The Black Cats have the chance to make history. They have won the last three meetings, but have never managed four wins on the trot against their bitter rivals and Newcastle have lost just once at St James’ Park this season. Sunderland are 3.85 to win.

Newcastle boss Alan Pardew has not only survived the axe, he has gone a long way to justifying his ludicrous eight-year contract – an unprecedented deal in the modern era. The only question has to be why it was awarded in the first place (answers on a postcard)?

Five of Newcastle’s six wins have come by the odd goal and they have yet to show they have the necessary fire-power to maintain their lofty position of eighth in the table. They are 2.04 to win on Sunday.

Their tally of just over a goal a game is the worst of the teams in the top half of the table and with games at Manchester United and Chelsea, plus awkward home games with Everton and Southampton before January is through, the pressure could soon mount.

While Newcastle are in something of a false position, they should account for a Sunderland side who could well find themselves in the drop zone shortly.

Only Burnley have scored fewer goals (11) than Sunderland’s 14 and only QPR have conceded more (27) than the 24 shipped by the Black Cats. Two wins before Christmas is relegation form.

Newcastle have scored at least once in nine of the last 10 games but have been slow starters, failing to score in the first half in 13 of their 16 games thus far. So we look for another slow-burner with the bulk of the scoring coming after the interval – it is 5.10 for a draw at Half-time and Newcastle to win – and the potential for this to get a little feisty.

VERDICT: Newcastle 3 Sunderland 1 (Correct Score Odds: @ 15.50)

All odds quoted from shorehamfc.myclubbetting.co.uk

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WEST HAM UNITED v LEICESTER CITY: MCB’s Premier League Betting Preview

West Ham United v Leicester City

Saturday, 3pm

nigel pearson
Upset on cards: Nigel Pearson

It seems unthinkable. At the start of the season, Sam Allardyce was a short price to be the first Barclays Premier League manager to sacked.

Only he could have dreamed that his side would be one win away from a top four spot at Christmas.

And facing a side that has won just once in their last 22 visits to Upton Park is all that stands between turning that dream to a reality. West Ham are 1.68 to beat Leicester.

It was Frank Lampard Senior who famously coined the phrase ‘West Ham usually come down with the Christmas decorations’ and that may still be the case – but the squad is deep, there is plenty of competition for places and they look relatively solid at the back.

The East London side are on course for their best ever Premier League season and have lost just once in the last 10 games.

The Hammers are one of eight clubs to have never fallen below the top two tiers of the English league, but are the only one of those eight not to have won the title. While their current 1000/1 odds to win the title would seem very enticing, even a top-four finish would be unthinkable.

A more realistic aim is a top six finish and there is no shame on lumping on at short odds to finish in the top 10.

Leicester, on offer at 5.30, have won three of the last 18 meetings and are on a run of six without a win against West Ham. They have never gone as long without a victory over the Hammers since they first met in 1926.

The portents for that run to continue do not look good; the Foxes are without a win in 11 Premier League games and have lost their last four. They are rooted to the foot of the table, five points adrift of safety and face Tottenham on Boxing Day, before tricky trips to Hull and Liverpool.

Six points from those four games will probably earn Nigel Pearson a stay of execution. Yet it would be no surprise to see Leicester board handing out a P45 with his Christmas card at the weekend should City lose.

Only QPR have leaked more goals than Leicester’s 27, while the Hammers can only count four teams to have netted more than their 27.

Five of the last seven meetings at Upton Park have produced three goals or more and given the plethora of fit strikers available to Allardyce, the competition is there and that breeds ruthlessness.

Leicester are desperate and this has the looks of a potential banana skin for the high-flying Hammers, despite being the ideal opportunity to make a statement. The Hammers may well stay up when the fairy lights come down, but they have a soft underbelly and could slip to an unexpected defeat, leaking a fatal goal when looking for a leveller.

VERDICT: West Ham 1 Leicester 3 (Correct Score Odds: 46.0)

All odds quoted from shorehamfc.myclubbetting.co.uk

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SOUTHAMPTON v EVERTON: MCB’s Premier League Betting Preview

Southampton v Everton

Saturday, 3pm

Roberto Martinez
Not quite right: Roberto Martinez

It is patently obvious that something is not quite right at Goodison Park.

Despite a 3-1 victory over a QPR side weakened without their top scorer Charlie Austin on Monday, the Toffeemen have managed just two wins in their last seven Barclays Premier League games.

While they have lost just twice at home (to Chelsea and Crystal Palace), they have hardly faced a murderer’s row in Arsenal, Aston Villa, Swansea, West Ham, Hull and QPR. They have gained three wins from eight at home and that does not sit well with the faithful in the Park Stand.

Everton are still just 3.00 to win at Southampton.

The dip in form from last year could be down to second-season syndrome. Roberto Martinez is fiercely adamant about the style and formation he wants his side to play and there is plenty of film for opponents to digest and, in some cases, set their stall to counteract.

Either way, we are not rushing to back them to finish in the Champions League places.

Southampton, on offer at 2.42, have won half of their league games and sit in fifth place in the table, a phenomenal achievement given the players that were sold in the summer.

They have lost four straight league games, however, and were duped out of the Capital One Cup by Sheffield United on Tuesday. Yet there is no disgrace in being beaten by Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United. Last Saturday’s 1-0 defeat at Burnley was also not an earth-shattering result – they have won just three of their last 12 trips to Turf Moor and had never won three consecutive meetings.

These recent defeats and the selling DNA of the new owners will have many Saints fans wondering what the future holds for several of their playmakers, in particular midfield enforcers Morgan Schneiderlin and Victor Wanyama, or leading tackler and right back Nathaniel Clyne, a target for both Manchester United and Liverpool in the January transfer window.

Both sides are lacking confidence at present. There have been four draws in the last eight meetings and it is 3.25 for another draw to occur. Southampton have only won two of the last 12 against Everton. The visitors have lost just three on the road this term and the hosts are unbeaten in the last five meetings at St Mary’s.

Southampton’s solid defence – they have shipped just 13 goals in 16 games – and Everton’s ability to score on the road – they have failed to score just once (at champions Manchester City – means plenty points to a draw.

However, the value lies with the hosts. Though without a win in five, they lost no caste in defeat to both Manchester clubs and won their previous five at home, conceding just one goal. The fortress may have been breached but they should be able to get back on track.

VERDICT: Southampton 2 Everton 0 (Correct Score Odds: 11.0)

 

All odds quoted from shorehamfc.myclubbetting.co.uk

Get your club, however large or small, its own tailor-made betting service. It is completely free and your club will not only receive 20% of the bookmakers’ net profit, it will also receive free kit and equipment. See myclubbetting.com for details.

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TOTTENHAM v BURNLEY: MCB’s Premier League Betting Preview

Tottenham v Burnley

Saturday, 3.00pm

Pochettino
On the rise: Mauricio Pochettino

Tottenham have been difficult to read this season but a 4-0 drubbing of Newcastle in the Capital One Cup augurs well for the rest of the season. Even Solado scored on Wednesday and he is now verging on the prolific.

Harry Kane is fast becoming the star of the show and Spurs have found a gem. The players are bonding at last, so Daniel Levy won’t have to sack the manager this week.

Burnley, on offer at 7.00, have won 11 from 18 points over the last six matches and that is far better than relegation form. The problem is that they are playing catch up with the rest of the division, but are now out of the bottom three.

However, they have won just one of seven matches on their travels this season and they are unlikely to beat Tottenham who are playing confidently. Spurs are 2.40 to win.

There have been three goals or more in the last 11 meetings between these teams and that run can continue. It is 1.76 for there to be over 2.5 total goals.

Spurs have won five of the last seven meetings and that is another trend they can maintain in this fixture. They have scored at least twice at home in their last 10 matches against Burnley.

Burney are conceding at a rate of almost two goals per game away from home this season.

However, they should start the match well in defensive areas and Spurs may have to wait until the second half to put the match to bed. Half-time Draw/Full-time Tottenham is on offer at 4.10.

They scored three times after the break against Newcastle and the majority of their goals against Burnley can arrive in the second half.

VERDICT: Tottenham 3 Burnley 0 (Correct Score odds: 10.00)

 

All odds quoted from shorehamfc.myclubbetting.co.uk

Get your club, however large or small, its own tailor-made betting service. It is completely free and your club will not only receive 20% of the bookmakers’ net profit, it will also receive free kit and equipment. See myclubbetting.com for details.

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