NFL PICK SIX – Week 17 betting guide

The final week of the 2015/16 regular season is upon us and with Denver beating Cincinnati on Monday night, there is just one wildcard spot still up for grabs. The New York Jets will take that remaining sport if they beat Buffalo. Pittsburgh need to win at Cleveland and hope the Bills do them a favour if they are to take the final AFC post-season berth.

MyClubBetting handicapper and Lindy’s Sports UK Editor Simon Milham takes a look at the betting trends and some of the best bets ahead of Week 17.

The odds are correct at the time of writing and are available on your club’s betting service.

(Handicap is denoted by +/- for the home team)


(PK, Total Points 42.5)

Buffalo confirmed earlier this week that former New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan will be back next season, despite a disappointing campaign.

Rex Ryan
Playing the spoiler: Rex Ryan

Ryan would like nothing more than to keep the Jets from making the playoffs, having put themselves in pole position with an unlikely and fortuitous overtime win against AFC East division winners New England.

Cynics would say that Bill Belichick’s decision to concede possession upon winning the toss before overtime was not so much miscalculated as incredibly calculated – the Pittsburgh Steelers would arguably be a more formidable foe in the playoffs than would the Jets.

Regardless, this is a game in which the Jets have the capacity to choke. The Bills have won five of the last six meetings, including the last four. Yet Gang Green has not lost five consecutive meetings dropping six between 1995 and 1997. Furthermore, the Bills have not won four consecutive meetings at home for 25 years.

This will be the biggest game in Jets’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s career and it ironically comes against the team who released him after four years in 2012. A win sees the Jets return to the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

Can the Jets extend their five-game winning streak? In that span, Fitzpatrick had a 13-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio. Can he extend that?

In the week 10 22-17 loss to Buffalo at MetLife Stadium, he tossed two interceptions and completed only 15 of 34 passes for 194 yards.

While it would be typical of the Jets to go limp at the wrong time, the Bills have nothing to play for and even Ryan’s pride may not be enough to see them record a season sweep.




(+11.5, Total Points 47.5)

Want to know why Pittsburgh are looking in from outside? Ryan Mallett just threw on that defense for 274 yards and a touchdown last week (cue gulping/head shaking/rolling eyes/all three).

Austin Davis.jpg
Better option: Austin Davis is next man up

After losing to the sad-sack Baltimore Ravens for the second time this season, the Steelers get a chance to stop Austin Davis this week, as Johnny Manziel is ruled out with concussion for the 3-12 Cleveland Browns.

This is a bad thing for Pittsburgh, as we started at the start of the season that Davis was the best QB on the Cleveland roster. It is a wonder that he has had to sit on the bench for so long.

There is plenty on the line for Mike Tomlin’s team. They need to win and hope that the Bills beat the Jets – something they have already done this season – to grab the remaining wildcard.

Pittsburgh’s play-calling left a bit to be desired last week, with Ben Roethlisberger handing off the ball for the first six plays and he did not look himself. He found no rhythm and when he did try and make big plays downfield, they were forced. Patience will be key and the Steelers will need to take what they are given, as the Browns will attempt to keep everything in front of them and be determined not to let Antionio Brown’s speed beat them deep.

It all starts up front and the Steelers’ secondary is vulnerable because they don’t have a great pass rush. Keep an eye on Cleveland TE Gary Barnidge and receiver Travis Benjamin, who may be able to take advantage of a soft underbelly.

Cleveland have nothing but pride to play for, although they hung tough against Kansas City last week. The handicap is a large one and we side with the Browns to keep things interesting.


BEST BET: CLEVELAND +11.5 @ 1.75


(+8.5, Total Points 46.5)

The Miami Dolphins’ biggest weakness this season has been the same as it has been for the past few years – they have failed to fix their lack of depth on the offensive line.

Ryan Tannehill.jpg
Ryan Tannehill: Not about to prove us wrong any time soon

And while you won’t hear it from some pundits, we tell it like it is: Ryan Tannehill is not a franchise quarterback. He will get something of a pass again this season owing to the O-line issues, yet while his toughness is not in question, his accuracy, lack of a deep ball and questionable leadership skills continue to dog the Dolphins, who need to move on quickly. The upcoming draft is quarterback-rich, for a change.

The Patriots will also have to move on from Tom Brady sooner rather than later, but they are on course to defend their Super Bowl crown with the elite QB at the helm.

Bill Belichick’s team has suffered several significant injuries at the receiver position and while they may rest a few key men for the playoffs, they have not lost on three consecutive trips to Miami.

Having been embarrassed by the Jets in overtime, the Patriots should be in the mood to cover the handicap, no matter how many scrubs play in the final quarter.




(+8.5, Total Points 46.5)

The Baltimore Ravens shocked division rivals Pittsburgh last week yet it is questionable that they will be able to topple the NFC North champion Bengals.

AJ McCarron.jpg
Sprained wrist: AJ McCarron

The Ravens, who have lost five of the last six meetings (including the last four), will be out to avoid an unprecedented fourth consecutive loss at Cincinnati. The handicap is a large one, particularly when you consider that while the Bengals can earn a first-round bye with a win and a Broncos loss to the Chargers, the latter is unlikely and it may be more advisable to rest a few starters before the playoffs. The Bengals can secure a bye with a loss, if Denver falls to san Diego and the Kansas City Chiefs beat Oakland.

The Ravens have only lost by more than eight points in four of their last 19 trips to Cincinnati (where they are 7-12), who play back-up QB AJ McCarron. So, they are been beaten by a one-score loss in Cincinnati just 21.05% of the time.

Second-year signal-caller McCarron is also set to start, despite spraining his left wrist against the Broncos.

The problem with bad teams is that they will play well one week, then slump back to what they really are next – and Baltimore’s record is 5-10.

The Bengals could roll – the incentive is certainly there – but this could be a tense game for the hosts and while they should prevail, we feel that the Ravens are a prideful group and are just the sort of team to play hard when there is little on the line.




(-4.5, Total Points 53.5)

There should be a few points in this largely meaningless NFC South battle, with no playoff hopes on the line. The Saints, who have not lost on consecutive trips to Atlanta since 2004 and 2005, seek their second season-sweep over the Falcons in three years.

Devonta Freeman.jpg
Superb season: Devonta Freeman

They may also been buoyed by the news that head coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees will return next season. Time will tell.

Falcons have won three of the last 10 meetings overall (two of those coming at home) and will fancy their chances of WR Julio Jones consistently beating Delvin Breaux, particularly when he lines up in the slot. Jones leads the NFL with 127 catches and 1,722 receiving yards, with eight touchdowns.

The Saints also don’t defend the run well at all. Opposing running backs are averaging 5.0 yards per tilt and they are vulnerable against screen passes – something that Atlanta excels with, utilising Devonta Freeman to great effect.

Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has thrown seven touchdown passes to one interception in five career home games against the Saints, who are conceding 30 points per game. He should get plenty of yards against this sieve-like New Orleans defense.

The Saints are 2-5 on the road, but the Georgia Dome is a home away from home and Brees has had some of his best games against the Falcons, who are conceding an average of 21.7 points per game and a middle-of-the-pack 344.8 yards per game.

We are chancing the Falcons’ better balanced attack to win the day, although this could develop into a shoot-out and you can never rule out Brees.


BEST BET: ATLANTA -4.5 @ 1.80 


(-3.5, Total Points 47.5)

Minnesota’s defense has been talked up. A LOT. The fact remains that they have ridden a soft schedule to the brink of the NFC North title: they have gone 1-4 against playoff teams this year.

Mile Zimmer.jpg
Good first season in charge: Mike Zimmer

A win at Lambeau Field – which has happened just once since 2005 (in November 2009) – would see them win the division. A Green Bay win, coupled with a Seattle win over Arizona, would see the Packers take on the Vikings at the same venue next week in a wildcard playoff.

The Packers are not the team that everyone was expecting to see. They have struggled badly at times and last week were walloped 38-8 on the road at Arizona.

They did managed to shut down the Vikings in Minnesota, however, and the Packers are 6-2 AS coming off a loss and 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six against the Vikings at Lambeau. They are 10-1-1 against the Vikings since 2009.

Injuries mean there is lack of speed on the Green Bay perimeter, which is causing Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers to hold onto the ball longer than he would like. As a result, he is getting sacked and making more mistakes than we are used to seeing.

The Vikings are a healthy group and Mike Zimmer’s defensive schemes have usually found ways to slow Rodgers down.

Yet we are not convinced by the Vikings’ attack. QB Teddy Bridgewater gets rattled when faced with a decent pass rush and they are too heavily reliant on running back Adrian Peterson, who is going to be 31 in March.

The Vikings have improved since their first meeting, a 30-13 win at Minnesota on Nov. 22 and this should be a much closer affair. The Packers are limping towards the playoffs, much as they did in 2010… the year they won the Super Bowl.


BEST BET: GREEN BAY -3.5 @ 2.00


CHICAGO -1.5 over Detroit: The Lions have done a much better job of protecting Matt Stafford since their trip to London and how well they match up against the Bears’ front seven will be key to the outcome. We don’t feel the Lions have the running game to put things to bed and Jay Cutler’s last hurrah in Chicago (possibly) will be a winning one. Bears 24-20

DALLAS -5.5 over Washington: The Cowboys can still get the second pick in the NFL draft if things fall their way. As it is, they have already secured a top-eight pick. Washington are locked into their playoff spot and will likely face the Seattle Seahawks next week in the wildcard round, having already won the NFC East. Do the Redskins rest key players as they seek their first back-to-back win in Big D since 1989? We see the Cowboys winning and just about covering a lofty spread. Cowboys 20-13

JACKSONVILLE +6.5 at Houston: Plenty has to go wrong for Houston to lose the AFC South and that should not happen. They seek a fifth home victory in the last six meetings with the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s emerging passing game may well be able to keep pace, if its dreadful defense – which allowed 539 yards in a loss to New Orleans last week – can make a few stops. Blake Bortles, Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson are a combination that you are going to hear a lot more about over the next few years. Texans 31-27

INDIANAPOLIS -2.5 over Tennessee: Horrible game. Colts need a minor miracle to win the division and reach the playoffs and their 40-year-old QB Matt Hasselbeck says his injured arm will be okay. If it isn’t, you will be putting your faith in Josh Freeman, Ryan Lindley or Stephen Morris to overcome a Titans’ defense that has allowed 34 points per game in its last four outings. Actually, if it is Freeman, we probably would. Colts 23-17

PHILADELPHIA +3.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS: We have little faith in this pick. Do we bank on the Eagles playing hard for interim head coach Pat Shurmur following the dismissal of Chip Kelly? Or will the Giants put it in for under-fire head coach Tom Coughlin? Eagles have won eight of the last nine meetings on their NFC East rivals’ turf. That sways us a little. Eagles 24-21

ARIZONA -6.5 over Seattle: The Cardinals are going to the NFC Championship. That’s our view, anyway. They can secure homefield advantage through the playoffs with a win and a Carolina Panthers loss (unlikely, since they face Tampa Bay). Seattle have little to play for and will face a trip to Washington, Green Bay or Minnesota in the wildcard round next week. Seattle are having problems running the ball with Marshawn Lynch still working his way back to fitness. The Cards will blitz, Russell Wilson will be picked off a couple of times and the hosts will win. Simple. Cardinals 23-13.

CAROLINA -10.5 over Tampa Bay: The Panthers missed out on a perfect regular season when falling to the Falcons and while they should win this and secure homefield advantage for the playoffs, how long QB Cam Newton will stay in the game is the big question. Tampa should be put away early and while a garbage-time TD might blow the handicap, we’ll take that chance. Panthers 33-17

SAN DIEGO +8.5 at Denver: Chargers have not lost three consecutive trips to Denver since 2005 and the Broncos will win the AFC West title with a victory. Brock Osweiler has thrown eight TDS to three interceptions in relief of Peyton Manning, who will suit up for the first time since tearing his plantar fascia in his left foot seven weeks ago. Denver still has a shot at securing the AFC’s top seed should they win and Miami knock off New England. The Chargers are 1-6 on the road and have not won a division game, but you can bet Chargers QB Philip Rivers will be feeding off the atmosphere and there could be a momentum swing or two before the inevitable. Broncos 27-21

KANSAS CITY -5.5 over Oakland: The Chargers were written off at 1-5 with star running back Jamaal Charles injured and lost for the season, but have since gone on a nine-game winning streak and have secured a playoff berth. They can clinch the AFC West with a win and a Broncos loss. Oakland have done a great job of protecting QB Derek Carr (sacked just 25 times this season) and the future looks bright for the Raiders. Still, the Chiefs’ pass rush will probably win the day when it matters. Chiefs 23-17

SAN FRANCISCO +2.5 over St Louis: This is all about draft position for the 49ers. They have already secured a top eight spot but could go much higher if they lose to the Rams, who seek back-to-back wins in San Francisco for the first time since 2001. The Rams are playing vastly superior football to the Niners, as their win at Seattle last week indicates. This line looks more than a little squiffy. Thus, we take the hosts in the hope that the linemakers have not overdone it on New Year’s Eve and have seen something that tells us the Niners are actually better than their stats suggest. 49ers 17-14

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NFL PICK SIX – Week 16 betting guide

Who will make the playoffs? With two weeks of the regular season to go, there are plenty of questions that remain unanswered.

Last week, the Carolina Panthers defeated the New York Giants 38-35 to improve to 14-0 for the first time in franchise history. The Panthers, who have already clinched the NFC South division title and a first-round bye, can secure homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win.

The Panthers are the fourth team in the Super Bowl era to start a season 14-0, joining e Miami Dolphins (1972), New England Patriots (2007) and Indianapolis Colts (2009). All three of those clubs advanced to the Super Bowl, with the Dolphins winning Super Bowl VII. The 1972 Dolphins are the only team to record a ‘perfect’ unbeaten season.

Mercury Morris
Perfect: Mercury Morris and the 1972 Dolphins

MyClubBetting handicapper and Lindy’s Sports UK Editor Simon Milham takes a look at the betting trends and some of the best bets ahead of Week 16 of the 2015/16 NFL season. In the last two weeks, our handicap selections have gone 21-10-1.

The odds are correct at the time of writing and are available on your club’s betting service.

(Handicap is denoted by +/- for the home team)


(-5.5, Total Points 47.5)

Neither team can make the playoffs, so this is effectively a dead rubber in the early hours of Christmas Day (01:25) UK time.

The Chargers (4-6) may well have played their last game in San Diego as a potential move to Los Angeles has been mooted. At least they signed off in style, defeating perennial underachievers Miami 30-14 in San Diego on Sunday.

Philip Rivers 2
Great season: Philip Rivers

Philip Rivers has had a strong season and he completed 26 of 36 passes for 311 yards with three touchdowns. He ranks second in the NFL in passing yards (4,287) and eclipsed 4,000 yards for the seventh time in his career.

Rivers is 14-5 as a starter against the Raiders, who fell to 6-8 after losing 30-20 at home to the Green Bay Packers.

The Raiders have been inconsistent, but QB Derek Carr has been a bright spot. He passed for 276 yards against the Packers and two TDs, giving him 30 for the year. He, along with Daryle Lamonica, are the only Raiders to reach the 30 TD barrier in a season.

Rookie receiver Amari Cooper had six receptions for 120 yards against the Packers and two touchdowns. He broke the 1,000-yard receiving barrier (1,040), making him the first Raiders’ rookie to do so and the first Raider since Randy Moss (1,005) in 2005 to hit that mark.

This is an awkward start to the penultimate week of the regular season. The Chargers have won six of the last eight meetings and nine of the last 11 in Oakland. They have not been swept by the Raiders since 2010.

Both teams stack up evenly as far as the stats go and, despite their record, San Diego has hung tough against some decent teams since their bye week.

Oakland has improved their run defense markedly and they have a decent nucleus of a top-level attack. There is no question that the Raiders are rising and we take them, albeit tentatively, to cover the number.




(-4.5, Total Points 47.5)

After winning on the road and posting back-to-back wins for the first time this season, the Washington Redskins can clinch the NFC east title by beating the Eagles (6-7), yet they are 4.5-point underdogs.

Matt Jones
Injury doubt: Matt Jones

In truth, the Redskins (7-7) are winning the division by default. They were the only team in the NFC East to win last weekend, outlasting the Buffalo Bills, despite giving up 452 total yards.

Washington has a couple of injuries along the offensive line, which is a concern. Tackle Morgan Moses could be ruled out with an ankle injury and Ty Nsekhe could fill in, while back-up center Josh LeRibeus, who has filled in for Kory Lichtensteiger, is similarly hampered. Brian de la Puente is expected to replace him.

Running back Matt Jones, who has been effective catching the ball out of the backfield, is also a doubt with a hip injury.

This could negate any advantage Washington may have had. The Eagles boast the 30th-ranked run defense and the Redskins have run the ball over 100 yards in each of the past four weeks.

The onus will be on Redskins QB Kirk Cousins to keep the chains moving, but Washington’s inability to win on the road is a concern, as is Cousins’ penchant to tossing interceptions – he has had at least one in his last 12 road games.

Still, Philadelphia’s inability to tackle effectively – they give up on average 123 yards per run after the catch – and their offense, which has been held to under 20 points in four of the last six games, means this could be a nail-biter.

Washington should not be such heavy underdogs. The reason they are leads us to think that Philadelphia should keep the NFC East title in the balance until the final week of the season.




(+6.5, Total Points 48.5)

Atlanta’s offense has been stagnant since Week 5. They have eclipsed 21 points just once since then, scoring 23 points in a win at Jacksonville last weekend.

Jonathan Stewart
Fantasy option: Jonathan Stewart

Thumped 38-0 by unbeaten Carolina just two weeks ago in Charlotte, they are less than a touchdown underdog for the return at the Georgia Dome, where they have won on each of their last two visits. The Panthers seek a third successive victory there for only the second time in the series’ history.

The Panthers have won five of the last six meetings and have wrapped up the NFC South with two weeks to go. A win – or an Arizona loss to Green Bay – will see them lock down homefield advantage for the playoffs. The Falcons remain alive in the playoff race at 7-7 with New Orleans to play in the finale.

Panthers QB Cam Newton leads a big-play passing attack which hums along when faced with teams who cannot get pressure up front. The Falcons are last in the league with 13 total sacks, so the Panthers’ offensive line should be able to give Newton enough time when he drops back.

However, the Falcons’ defense does create turnovers – they are fifth in the league in interceptions.

We expect the Panthers to dominate on the ground, as Atlanta’s tackling is not great (ranking 26th in missed tackles per snap), and would not put anyone off having running back Jonathan Stewart in their fantasy teams this weekend.

The line is lower than we would expect, but the Falcons have plenty still to play for and this could be a tighter battle than many anticipate. We did not like the way the Panthers took their foot off the gas last week in New York, who showed they are vulnerable to elite receivers. We are looking at you Julio Jones. Still, the Panthers should


BEST BET: ATLANTA +6.5 @ 1.91


(+9.5, Total Points 47.5)

The Steelers are 9-5 and can clinch a playoff spot with a win and a New York Jets loss. The 4-10 Ravens are in the hunt for the first overall pick in the NFL draft after a bitterly disappointing season.

Ben Roethlisberger
Firing: Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers

Pittsburgh has lost three of its last four trips to Baltimore and four of the last five meetings overall, yet the Steelers’ offense is firing now that Ben Roethlisberger is healthy. They have put up over 30 points in each of the last six games and Big Ben is averaging over 330 passing yards per game.

Consequently, the Steelers enter this as heavy favourites, despite allowing a poor 7.7 yards per pass play average.

The reason for the big handicap line is the uncertain status at the quarterback spot. Joe Flacco tore his ACL in week 11 and was replaced by Matt Schaub, who suffered a chest injury and was then benched for Jimmy Clausen after two games.

Clausen started the last two weeks, but has gone a combined 49 of 85 pass completions for 555 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Joe Montana he isn’t. It could be that Ryan Mallett, the former New England back-up who was cut by Houston earlier this season, makes his first start.

Pittsburgh’s record in Baltimore is not good. Their total points in the last 12 visits were: 10, 13, 13, 0, 21, 13, 17, 13, 7, 23, 20 and 6. They won just three of those games.

Can we trust them to cover such a large number against a division foe with nothing to lose? The simple answer is yes. The Ravens simply are not a good football team right now.




(+1.5, Total Points 45.5)

The New York Jets need to win their last two AFC East division games – against New England and Buffalo – and see either the Chiefs, Steelers or Broncos lose if they are to make the playoffs as a wildcard.

Tom Brady
Seeking homefield comforts: Tom Brady

They are riding a four-game winning streak thanks, in part, to some clutch performances from quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has tossed 10 TDs and one interception in that span.

Standing in their way are the Patriots, who can clinch homefield advantage with a win or a Cincinnati loss.

The banged-up Patriots, who have won eight of the last nine meetings, could well rest some starters as they bid to extend their 23-7 record over the Jets in the Tom Brady era.

But ever since the infamous Butt-fumble in 2012, games between these two have been close, decided by three, three, two, three and seven points – all Patriots wins.

Much depends on how the Patriots approach this. Still, the Super Bowl champs are unlikely to let up and we see them as one of the better bets of the weekend, regardless of what is on the line for the Jets.


BEST BET: NEW ENGLAND -1.5 @ 1.91 


(-4.5, Total Points 50.5)

This is possibly the best game of Week 16, with the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals already having secured respective playoff berths. The Packers lead the NFC North by one game after a 30-20 win in Oakland and can secure the title this weekend with a win and a Minnesota Vikings loss. The Packers and Vikings meet in week 17.

David Johnson
Full deck: Cards are stacked with David Johnson

The Cardinals have won a franchise 12 games and clinched the NFC West last week with a 40-17 win at Philadelphia. The Cardinals will receive a first round playoff bye with a win.

Green bay has a fair record at Arizona, only having lost back-to-back visits once since 1949 (and those losses came nine years apart).

The Packers have won their last three games and five of seven on the road, while the Cardinals are riding an eight-game winning streak and playing arguably the best football in the league right now.

Arizona suffered a blow last week when safety Tyrann Mathieu suffered a torn ACL. He led the team in passes defended (16), was tied for the most interceptions (five) and was second in solo tackles (80). So we expect the Cardinals to drop off a bit defensively.

The one thing they don’t have is a dominant pass-rusher and if given time, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers will pick any defense apart.

Yet their running game is not the best and to keep one of the best attacks on the sidelines, you need to be able to control the clock. We are not sure that the Packers can do this.

The Cardinals’ offensive line is greater than the sum of its parts, but they have a veteran quarterback in Carson Palmer who is playing some of the best football of his career and they can hit you deep off of play action.

Yet it is the running game that impresses us the most. David Johnson, a third round selection from Northern Iowa, is the real deal. In three starts, he has rushed for 378 yards at 5.4 yards per carry. He catches the ball well and is also a capable pass blocker.

We see the Packers’ defense wilting under pressure and take the Cardinals to cover a lofty number.


BEST BET: ARIZONA -4.5 @ 1.91 


DALLAS +6.5 at Buffalo: Buffalo’s playoff drought continues after their loss to Washington and their motivation will be to beat a team that beat them in back-to-back Super Bowls (1993 and 94). The Cowboys are in the hunt for the first pick in the NFL draft (Tennessee and Cleveland have the inside track) and have little motivation, but the handicap is big enough to warrant a small play. Bills 24-20

SAN FRANCISCO +9.5 at Detroit: The Lions have lost 14 of the last 15 meetings against the Niners, including four of the last five at home. Nothing rests on this game, but a play on the points total at 43 might be worth taking. We’ll go over. Lions 28-20 

KANSAS CITY -12.5 over Cleveland: The biggest handicap line of the weekend and we take the Chiefs to cover it. They are the only team in NFL history to win eight consecutive games immediately following a five-game losing streak. Amazing what a trip to London will do for you. At 9-5, the Chiefs can clinch a playoff berth with a victory and a loss by either Pittsburgh or the New York Jets. Chiefs 31-13 

MIAMI -2.5 over Indianapolis: The Colts have shut down QB Andrew Luck for their final road game of the season and should Houston win at Tennessee, it won’t matter. They already need help to make the playoffs for the fourth straight season. This could be Matt Hasselbeck’s last hurrah, the 40-year-old gunslinger looked to have little left against Houston and it could be that Charlie Whitehurst will start. Miami have been poor all season but they may well nick a home win against a banged-up opponent. Dolphins 21-17 

TAMPA BAY -3.5 over Chicago: The Bears have not won three consecutive meetings in Tampa since winning on six consecutive trips from 1983-88. Consecutive losses to New Orleans and St Louis meant the Buccaneers miss the playoffs for the eight consecutive season and this young team, though improving, made to many mental errors when it mattered (including 21 penalties in those two losses). The Bucs have had 10 days rest and the Bears are in a tailspin, having lost their last three. Not a game to get too involved in. Buccaneers 24-20 

TENNESSEE +4.5 over Houston: The Texans moved into sole possession of first place in the AFC South with last week’s 16-10 win at Indianapolis. Houston QB Brandon Weeden came on in relief and threw the game-winning touchdown pass to rookie receiver Jaelen Strong in the fourth quarter. The Texans can clinch the division title with a win and an Indianapolis loss. The Titans are going nowhere, but they are worth a punt at home. Titans 16-13 

NEW ORLEANS -5.5 over Jacksonville: The post-season playoff drought in Jacksonville now stands at eight seasons after their loss to Atlanta and they will face a severe test from the Saints’ passing game, which is averaging over 303 yards per game. The Jaguars’ secondary gives up 260 yards per game, but bear in mind that the Saints have failed to cover the handicap in three of their last five home games. Saints 34-27 

SEATTLE -13.5: Seattle have clinched a wildcard and despite losing five games, are still the NFC champions and the team no-one wants to face. The Rams have lost their last 10 trips to Seattle and in just two of those contests have they managed to keep it to a one-score margin of defeat. The line is about where it should be, but we take the Rams to keep this competitive for a while. Seahawks 31-16 

NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 at Minnesota: The Giants are a game behind Washington and are tied with Philadelphia in the NFC East, with whom the Giants face in week 17. The Giants can still win the division title but need to win their last two and get help along the way. Minnesota will clinch a playoff berth with a win and should they defeat Green Bay next week, will clinch the NFC North title. Tough call. Vikings can win, but it may be close. Vikings 27-24 

DENVER -3.5 over Cincinnati: Cincinnati can clinch the AFC North division title and a first-round bye with a win on Monday night. The Broncos can secure a playoff spot with a win and a loss by either Pittsburgh or the New York Jets. Denver clinches the AFC West title with a victory over Cincinnati and a loss by Kansas City. The Bengals have lost their last nine trips to Denver and with receiver AJ Green suffering a back injury and with AJ McCarron still deputising for starting QB Andy Dalton (broken thumb), we see the Broncos covering the field goal handicap. Broncos 27-21

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NFL PICK SIX – Week 15 betting guide

Three weeks remain of the regular season. Carolina (13-0) is the lone unbeaten team after thrashing Atlanta 38-0 last weekend and has secured a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Entering 2015, seven teams started a season 13-0 during the Super Bowl era. Of those seven clubs, five advanced to the Super Bowl and three of those teams won the Super Bowl.

MyClubBetting handicapper and Lindy’s Sports UK Editor Simon Milham takes a look at the betting trends and some of the best bets ahead of Week 15 of the 2015/16 NFL season. In week 14, our handicap selections went 12-4.

The odds are correct at the time of writing and are available on your club’s betting site.

(Handicap is denoted by +/- for the home team)


(-1, Total Points 41)

Tampa Bay (6-7) still have an outside shot at the playoffs despite losing at home to New Orleans last Sunday, while the St Louis Rams (5-8) are on the outside looking in, even though they downed Detroit at home.

Todd Gurley
Elite back: Todd Gurley

The Buccaneers have a terrible 1-7 record at the Rams, their sole road win coming in 2001. Realistically, their playoff hopes rest on winning their three remaining games and hoping that Seattle (8-5) or Minnesota (8-5) do not win another game.

The Rams snapped a four-game losing streak thanks in part to several big runs from first-round draft pick Todd Gurley, who gained 140 yards and two touchdowns in the 21-14 win over the Lions.  Gurley is a force and has eight TDs in his last eight games.

The Saints dressed the Buccaneers in a clown suit with a 24-17 win, keeping rookie QB Jameis Winston and running back Doug Martin under control. Whether the Rams will be able to is open to argument.

Rams back-up passer Case Keenum, who has won three of his last four starts, will need to lean on Gurley and the running game if he is to help coach Jeff Fisher extend his 7-1 record against the Bucs.

From a punting perspective, this looks a game to leave alone. The Bucs should win, but their record at the Rams is off-putting.




(+3, Total Points 42)

Although Miami’s defeat on Monday handed the AFC East to the New England Patriots, the New York Jets (8-5) can make it two teams from that division to make the playoffs, for they are in the wildcard hunt.

Matt Cassel 2
Another chance: Matt Cassel

However, they will feel they must win against Dallas on Saturday night to remain in possession of that playoff spot, as their last two games come against the Patriots and division rival Buffalo (6-7) who are still alive. Neither game is a ‘gimmie’.

Dallas (4-9) have to win out and hope that all three NFC East division rivals Washington Redskins (6-7), New York Giants (6-7) and Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) continue to slip up. Their only hope is to win the division and those hopes are hanging by a thread.

The Jets hold a 3-7 all-time record against the Cowboys, including a 1-2 record in Dallas, who have spiralled to their first losing season since 2010 without injured QB Tony Romo.

Since Romo broke his collarbone, the Cowboys have gone 1-8 with Matt Cassel and Brandon Weeden. Cassel is likely the starter this week, even though the Cowboys have produced only eight touchdowns in seven games with him at the helm. He completed just 13 of 29 passes for 114 yards in a losing effort against the Green Bay Packers last weekend.

The Jets are on a three-game winning streak – their first since December 2011 – and have scored 91 points in that span. Those wins came against Miami Dolphins, New York Giants and Tennessee Titans, all of whom have losing records.

The outcome will be determined on whether or not the Cowboys actually fancy it. They have, realistically, little to play for. This is not a game we want to get too heavily involved in, but take the Jets to win a close one.


BEST BET: NY JETS -3 @ 1.91


(-3, Total Points 49)

We looked at this as a potential handicapping ‘swing’ game.

The rule is simple: Team A wins handily one week and Team B loses heavily. If they face each other the following week, the best option is often to back the underdog with the points.

2014 NFL Combine
Fast-improving: Jaguars passer Blake Bortles

The theory is that Team B (in this case the Atlanta Falcons) are likely to work harder on the things they got wrong and use their embarrassment as a motivational tool, while Team A (Jacksonville, who ran up the score on Indianapolis last week) could take their rivals lightly.

It is surprising how often the swing system has paid off, with underdogs given eight points or more keeping within the handicap 66 per cent of the time in the past 17 years when their combined margin of victory and defeat was above 48 points.

With the Jaguars tonking Tennessee 51-16 last week, the margin of victory (35 points) and Falcons’ defeat (losing 38-0 to Carolina) totals 73 points. But the bookies have got wise to swing games and rather than having the Falcons as eight-points dogs, the Jags are just three-point favourites.

So you simply have to go against the basic principles of handicapping on this occasion. The Falcons really are not that bad and the Jaguars are not yet Super Bowl calibre.

Still, history says the Jaguars have the edge. They have won both meetings in Florida and, at 5-8, are just a game behind AFC South leaders Indianapolis (6-7).

With three games remaining against teams with a losing record, the Jaguars can keep their playoff hopes alive for another week at least. We worry about the handicap line, however. It should be bigger than it is.




(-13.5, Total Points 46.5)

New England has failed to cover lofty spreads on several occasions this season, but while they have won the AFC East, the Patriots are still in need of a first-round bye.

Marcus Mariota
Big numbers: Marcus Mariota

The Titans were burned on the ground for 183 yards by the Jets but there have been bright spots this season, notably from rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota, who has already set franchise rookie records for pass attempts (364), completions (227), passing yards (2,786) and passing touchdowns (19). He could become the 10th QB in history to reach 20 touchdowns in history.

The Titans are 2-4 under interim head coach Mike Malarkey, who took control on November 3, but looked defensively dreadful against an ordinary Jets team.

New England, having clinched a seventh consecutive AFC East title, know the clock is ticking on Tom Brady’s career. In his 16th season, he has already become the fourth NFL player to reach 400 career touchdown passes and leads the NFL with 4,138 passing yards this season.

The Patriots are not in a position to rest key players. Ravaged by injuries, their running game suffered a massive blow when LeGarrette Blount was ruled out for the rest of the season in their win over the Texans. They also lost defensive tackle Dominique Easley.

Yet they are 12-0 when favoured by 15.5 points or more and the line has already climbed from an opening 12.5-points. This should be a routine win, but don’t expect them to run up the score and there is always a danger that a garbage time TD could blow the handicap.


BEST BET: NEW ENGLAND -13.5 @ 1.91


(+1, Total Points 44)

With three regular-season games remaining, both teams have a shot at making the play-offs.

Buffalo (6-7) remain in contention for a wildcard in the AFC, although it could come down to their clash with the New York Jets (8-5) on the final day.

Washington’s (6-7) win in Chicago means they lead the NFC East, but they still have to face division rivals Dallas (4-9) and Philadelphia (6-7).

The Redskins have lost the last six against the Bills and we will rely on the Bills’ third-ranked running game to grind out a narrow win – as long as LeSean McCoy finds his was to the team plane in time.




(+3, Total Points 47)

The Green Bay Packers (9-4) top the NFC North thanks to a gritty 28-7 win over the Cowboys and are a game ahead of the Minnesota Vikings, whom they meet in the regular-season finale at Lambeau Field.

Mike McCarthy
In charge: Mike McCarthy offers diversity

That one could be for all the marbles, because the Pack face two tough road trips, going across country to Oakland before heading to Arizona.

The Packers have won the last six meetings, but this will be their first clash since 2011.

Oakland (6-7) did as we anticipated they would last week, coming away from Denver with an upset victory to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Yet they have won just two of their last six at home and Green Bay, while inconsistent at times this season – especially in the running game – received a boost last week when head coach Mike McCarthy resumed offensive play-calling duties. It is what many had been calling for after an unsuccessful period from offensive coordinator Tom Clements.

McCarthy can put quarterback Aaron Rodgers in a position to be successful, as his schemes are balanced and a little more diverse.




KANSAS CITY -7.5 at Baltimore: Ravens (4-9) have a QB quandary. They could start back-up Matt Schaub, who suffered chest and shoulder injuries a week ago, or Jimmy Clausen, who could not get the ravens in the endzone against Seattle. Or they could even turn to ex-Houston back-up Ryan Mallett, whom they signed last week. It is not a pretty situation for a team that appears to have packed its bags for the season. The Chiefs have an excellent defense, but the Ravens have played a bunch of close games. This could be closer than anticipated, but we expect Alex Smith and the Chiefs to come through. Chiefs 23-14

HOUSTON +3.5 at Indianapolis: Both teams will start back-up quarterbacks for the latest in a series that Indianapolis has dominated, winning 23 of 27 all-time, including the last six. Houston had won four games in a row before dropping the last two, while Indianapolis had won three on the bounce before losing their last two. Colts are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games after consecutive losses but they have been outgained in nine of the last 10 games. Tough call but we favour the Texans to cover the spread. Colts 24-21

MINNESOTA -5.5 over Chicago: Bears have not lost three consecutive to the Vikings since 1999-2000 and they have won at hostile environments in Kansas City and Green Bay this season. Their last five losses came by three points or less, but what do they have to play for? The Vikings are in the hunt for the NFC North title but dropped a vital game in Arizona last week. They should ride Adrian Peterson and the ground game to victory. Vikings 21-10

NEW YORK GIANTS +5.5 over Carolina: This handicap line should be at least a TD, particularly given the Giants’ powder-puff defense. Yet the unbeaten Carolina Panthers have lost four of the last six meetings and two of the last three in New York. The Giants should not come close, even though they put up 31 points on Miami last Monday night. We don’t see this as a potential upset and the Panthers’ offensive line should open enough holes for the running game to be successful. Still, the line worries us and we are tentatively following the money. Panthers 24-20

SEATTLE -14.5 over Cleveland: Despite having snapped a seven-game losing streak with an expected win over San Francisco, Cleveland face long road-trip with little to play for. The Seahawks have had issues at time with mobile quarterbacks and Johnny Manziel’s athleticism could cause a few problems. He does not have Brian Hartline as a target, following the receiver’s broken collarbone and they have had several issues running the ball. We see the NFC champions cruising. Seahawks 31-10

DENVER +6 at Pittsburgh: This is another handicap line that worries us. Denver may have lost to Oakland, but that was a statistical – and predictable – trend defeat. Along similar lines, the Steelers have not lost three on the trot to the Broncos since 1970-73 and are 9-0 against the spread in their last nine December games. They have lost five of the last seven at home to the Broncos, whose defense has carried them all season. We don’t see the Steelers putting up 30 or more points as they have in five straight games and if C.J. Anderson is healthy, the Broncos can take some pressure off of QB Brock Osweiler. Steelers 24-21

MIAMI +2 at San Diego: Dolphins have won nine of the last 11 meetings with the Chargers, but have lost the last two in San Diego and have been done no favours with the schedule, travelling cross country off a short week. The Chargers could do nothing against a tough Chiefs defense in a 10-3 loss at Arrowhead but QB Philip Rivers should get plenty of change against a porous Dolphins secondary. Likewise, counterpart Ryan Tannehill might look like a viable passer if running back Lamar Miller can take advantage of the 27th-ranked run defense – providing he’s actually given the ball. Not a confident pick by any means, but we take the upset. Dolphins 23-17

SAN FRANCISCO +4.5 over Cincinnati: The Bengals are looking over their shoulders hoping history will not repeat itself. They can win the AFC North with a win but were pipped at the death last year and without injured QB Andy Dalton, there are fears that the same thing may happen. The 49ers were dreadful at Cleveland but are 11-3 all-time over the Bengals, who have been beaten on their last five visits. AJ McCarron was not bad in relief of Dalton against the Steelers last week and he has plenty of talent surrounding him. It is tough to put our faith in San Francisco back-up Blaine Gabbert, however. Yet the Niners are tough at home in December games, winning 15 of 16 and we take them to keep this close. Bengals 23-21

ARIZONA -3.5 at Philadelphia: Sunday’s late game might be worth staying up for. The Eagles have rebounded to 6-7 after winning at New England and outlasting Buffalo. They top the NFC East with three games to play, but the visiting Cardinals have a chance to wrap up the NFC West and take a big step to securing a first-round playoff bye. They have won five of the last seven meetings and with Green Bay and Seattle left to play, they will need this win as much as the desperate Eagles. Cardinals 34-27

DETROIT +3 at New Orleans: Not a Monday Night Football game to get enthused about, as neither has much to pay for, having been eliminated from playoff contention. The Saints (5-8) have lost three times at home this term but the Lions have failed to cover the handicap in their last nine road games in December. The points total, which has gone under the Vegas line in 13 of the last 16 Lions road games, is set at 50.5 and we think it is worth looking at the overs. There should be plenty of points and we chance a Lions win with nothing more than a bet for interest suggested. Lions 31-27

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NFL PICK SIX – Week 14 betting guide

Four weeks remain of the regular season. Carolina (12-0) is the lone unbeaten team and they are the first team to make the playoffs, having won the NFC South.

Entering 2015, eight teams started a season 12-0 during the Super Bowl era. Of those eight clubs, all eight made the playoffs, six advanced to the Super Bowl and four of those teams won the Super Bowl.

MyClubBetting handicapper and Lindy’s Sports UK Editor Simon Milham takes a look at the betting trends and some of the best bets ahead of Week 14 of the 2015/16 NFL season. The odds are correct at the time of writing and are industry average.

(Handicap is denoted by +/- for the home team)


(-7.5, Total Points 46.5)

Fresh from their humbling 38-7 home defeat by Seattle, Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer told us something regular readers to this column would already have known, when he said: “We are not quite as good as we think we are.”

adrian Peterson.jpg
Feed the man: Adrian Peterson needs more carries

Zimmer handed the ball to Adrian Peterson juts eight times, which, even in third and long situations, would be the most obvious play-call with such an elite running back on the team. It is dumbfounding when your quarterback has turned into nothing more than a game-manager: Teddy Bridgewater has only three touchdown passes against four interceptions over the last six games, with just six completions longer than 25 yards in that span.

The Vikings (8-4) visit Arizona (10-2) before finishing the season with home games against the New York Giants and Chicago Bears, before what could be the NFC North title decider at Green Bay.

The Cardinals are playing for homefield advantage in the playoffs and Minnesota’s scalp looks ripe for the taking, with linebacker Anthony Barr, safety Harrison Smith, safety Robert Blanton and defensive tackle Linval Joseph all likely to miss out.

The Vikings have a decent record against the Cardinals, winning 10 of the last 12 meetings (including 3-2 on the road) and 12 of the last 15.

The injury woes point us towards the Cardinals, who have a quarterback in Carson Palmer playing at an MVP level, with 29 TD passes and approaching his fifth 4,000-yard season. The historical trends say it is a game to swerve, however.


BEST BET: ARIZONA -7.5 @ 1.91


(-7.5, Total Points 46)

Carolina are gunning for history. The Miami Dolphins are the only team to have gone unbeaten throughout the season. Led by legendary coach Don Shula, the 1972 Dolphins were perfect.

Cam Newton and Mike Shula
Big winners: Cam Newton and Mike Shula

The Panthers, whose offensive coordinator is Shula’s son, Mike, are 12-0 after sneaking past New Orleans and have already won the NFC South title.

Mike has a long way to go before matching “Shoes’” career tally of 347 career wins as a head coach – the most in history – but it won’t be too long before he is a head coach himself. Miami may well be the place where the 50-year-old will end up.

Trying to make a success of that dysfunctional franchise and follow in his father’s footsteps might be beyond him and, in any case, being sacked as head coach after three years at Alabama may have soured his enthusiasm for a head-coaching role. We digress.

Shula has created an offense around QB Cam Newton that is putting up 31 points per game – with no standout receivers – and the Panthers have every chance of going 16-0 in the regular season.

Atlanta, who have to face the Panthers twice in three weeks, are still very much in the NFC wildcard hunt at 6-6, chasing Tampa Bay (6-6), Seattle (7-5) and Minnesota (8-4).

The Falcons are in the midst of their worst run in series history, having lost four of the last five meetings with the Panthers, although they have won three of the last five meetings in Charlotte.

Carolina’s read-option attack will give the Falcons fits, but there is plenty on the line for the visitors and the pressure to remain unbeaten, coupled with an emotional let-down after winning the NFC South could see the victory margin closer than expected.


BEST BET: ATLANTA +7.5 @ 1.91


(-1.5, Total Points 47)

With four games remaining, both teams are in a dog-fight to make the playoffs.

Last weekend, Buffalo (6-6) out-lasted Houston 30-21, while Philadelphia (5-7) snapped a four-game losing streak with a stunning 35-28 upset of New England.

LeSean McCoy
LeSean McCoy: Makes a return to The Linc

The Bills have won five of the last seven meetings, including two of the last three meetings in Philadelphia. The Eagles have won just two of their last five home games.

One of the biggest side-shows is running back LeSean McCoy’s return to Philadelphia. In a magazine interview published in May, McCoy voiced his opinion that Eagles head coach Chip Kelly had “got rid of all the black players” – and there will no doubt be a hint of revenge in the air as far as he is concerned.

McCoy, the Eagles’ all-time leading rusher – tops the Bills in rushing with 792 yards, but the offense has been ticking over largely because of the play of quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who has accumulated 176 completions for 2,171 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Linebacker Kiko Alonso, who is coming back from an ACL injury after being traded from Buffalo to Philadelphia as part of the McCoy trade, faces his former colleagues with plenty on the line.

The Eagles are in a tie for first place in the turgid NFC East with a 5-7 record along with Washington and the New York Giants, while Dallas is only a game back at 4-8.

The Eagles get to play both the Redskins and Giants again after home games with Buffalo and Arizona next week.

We side with the Eagles to cover a 1.5-point handicap at 1.91 and expect plenty of points; the line, currently set at 47, may well be eclipsed.




(-3.5, Total Points 50.5)

The Saints have won seven of the last eight meetings with Tampa, although the Buccaneers will be shooting for their first season sweep over New Orleans since 2007, having beaten them 26-19 in September.

Drew Brees
Consistent: Drew Brees having one of his best seasons for Saints

A Tampa loss will see the Arizona Cardinals clinch a play-off spot, regardless if they win or lose at home to Minnesota on Thursday, but the Bucs (6-6) are shooting for the play-offs themselves.

New Orleans (4-8) is playing the role of spoiler in the last four weeks, even though still mathematically still alive for post-season play.

Saints have lost their last four games and are an uninspiring 1-5 on the road. Tampa has to go on the road next week at St Louis before hosting Chicago at home.

Their final regular-season game comes against Carolina, who could rest starters in the final game of the season. Equally, they may still be shooting for an unbeaten season.

Consequently, we see this as a must-win game for Tampa and a ‘who-cares’ game for the ‘who-dat’ Saints. That can only mean one thing: We go for a home win with plenty of points and the reality will be the Saints will blow our bet, somehow, some way. Still…


BEST BET: TAMPA BAY -3.5 @ 1.92


(-1.5, Total Points 41)

This is not on everyone’s punting radar. Why would it be? These two teams are both heading in the wrong direction with a combined 6-18 record and each props up its respective division.

Gary Barnidge
Big target: Gary Barnidge

Cleveland, who have lost their last seven games, are one of the better bets of the week in our opinion… and we haven’t even touched the Christmas brandy yet.

The 49ers have won two of their last four games and are coming off a gritty win at Chicago. Blaine Gabbert, in for the benched and injured Colin Kaepernick, has thrown five touchdown passes and three interceptions in his four games. Back-up passer Dylan Thompson has not thrown a pass in his career, however.

The Niners’ starting running back Carlos Hyde has now missed five games through injury and back-up Reggie Bush is ruled out for the season.

Former Browns RB Shaun Draughn handles most of the rushing duties but he is far from an elite back. The key is the Niners’ offensive line. They rank 20th in rushing yards and have given up the fifth-most sacks.

Yet while they are better than the Browns’ unit (instability at left guard is a major issue), the defensive line is woeful and the Browns should be able to run the ball at will. That should open up the passing lanes for Johnny Manziel, who will look for top tight end Gary Barnidge (a fair price to score a TD at any time).

How bad are the 49ers? Look at the line. The Browns are favourites, having lost their last seven, and have won one of their last four trips to Cleveland. We take the hosts to… gulp… cover.




(+3, Total Points 49.5)

Expect a barnstormer with plenty of offensive fireworks when these two AFC North rivals clash.

Andy Dalton1
Gunning for five: Dalton on verge of play-offs again

The Cincinnati Bengals (10-2) won the last meeting in Pittsburgh 16-10 and are looking for their first season sweep of the Steelers since 2009. They can clinch the division with a win and clinch a playoff sport with should either the New York Jets or Kansas City lose.

Since entering the NFL in 2011, Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton has led the Bengals to the playoffs in each of his first four seasons and can clinch a fifth consecutive postseason berth this weekend. Dalton would join Joe Flacco (five) as the only starting quarterbacks to lead a team to the playoffs in each of his first five NFL seasons.

With a win against Pittsburgh (7-5), Dalton (50) would also tie Ben Roethlisberger (51) for the third-most wins by a starting quarterback in his first five seasons during the Super Bowl era.

The Steelers have won four of the last five trips to the Queen City, and eight of the last 11 meetings overall.

Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has an 89-51 regular-season record since taking the reins in 2007.

With a win at Cincinnati, Tomlin would join Pro Football Hall of Famer Chuck Noll (193) and Bill Cowher (149) as the third head coach in franchise history to reach 90 regular-season wins. Pittsburgh would be the first franchise in NFL history to have three different head coaches reach at least 90 career regular-season wins.

The Steelers are in pole position for an AFC wildcard spot, but have a number of teams staking up behind them, including the New York Jets (7-5), Kansas City Chiefs (7-5), Buffalo Bills (6-6) and Houston Texans (6-6). The Jets and Chiefs both have winnable home games this weekend, so this is a pivotal game for the Steelers.

The Steelers are sixth in scoring (25.9 points per game), while the Bengals (27.8ppg) are ranked fourth in the NFL, but the backend of the Steelers’ defense is the biggest concern for them – they rank 29th in the NFL, giving up an average of 275.5 yards per game.

Still, we think there is plenty for the Steelers to play for and a field-goal may be the difference either way. With that in mind, the half-point could be valuable.




BALTIMORE +6.5 over Seattle: Seattle has lost on both previous trips to Baltimore and the Ravens continue to keep things close against almost every opponent they have faced. This selection goes wildly against the form grain, however, so tread warily. Seahawks 23-17 

WASHINGTON +3.5 at Chicago: Redskins won 11 of the last 13 meetings (including the last five) and six of the last seven in the Windy City. The Bears are coming off a tough loss to San Francisco and are unbelievably still in the hunt for an NFC wildcard. That’s almost as unbelievable as the 5-7 Redskins topping the NFC East. Redskins 23-21 

JACKSONVILLE +6.5 over Indianapolis: Colts have won the last six in the series, but have not come away from Jacksonville having won four consecutive meetings (three currently). The Jaguars’ defense is wafer-thin but their attack continues to hum. Take the points. Colts 28-23 

SAN DIEGO +9.5 at Kansas City: Chargers have not lost four consecutive meetings since 1990-92 (six consecutive defeats) and Philip Rivers, who is enjoying a great year despite the team’s record, may well keep this interesting. Chiefs 24-17 

NY JETS -7 over Tennessee: Jets have won seven of the last 10 meetings and incredibly are in the frame to make the playoffs. How? We’ve no idea. They are a very ordinary outfit. The Titans are even more vanilla, however. Jets 31-13 

ST LOUIS -1 over Detroit: Lions have won the last two meetings but have only once won three consecutive meetings since 1965. Not a game that enthuses us, but we take the Rams to edge a game that has no playoff implications. Rams 19-16 

OAKLAND +7 at Denver: Denver can clinch the AFC West division with a win and a Kansas City loss. They earn a playoff berth with a win and either a loss by the Jets or Steelers. Raiders have lost the last eight in the series, their worst run of form against the Broncos in their history. They have lost the last three trips to Denver and have not lost on four consecutive meetings at Mile High since (1997-2000). The Broncos suddenly sniff a chance of the No1 seed in the AFC (they have the same record as New England and Cincinnati), and their stellar defense will ensure another routine home win. Oakland’s wildcard hopes will be extinguished should they lose, but this could be a tight affair. Broncos 34-31 

GREEN BAY -6.5 over Dallas: Cowboys have lost four consecutive meetings and have not lost five consecutive in the series since 1960-68 (when dropping six in a row). At 4-8 the Cowboys are just a game out of first place in the NFC East. Ridiculous. Packers take charge at home, although they have several injuries themselves and it is a lofty spread to cover. Still… Packers 34-24 

NEW ENGLAND -3 at Houston: Patriots have only ever lost once to Houston (2010) and can clinch the AFC East with a win or a New York Jets loss, while Houston can cement themselves in the wildcard race with a win. Patriots were incredibly sloppy in a home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, and the injury bug may have finally caught up with them. We can’t see the Patriots putting in such another abject display, though. Patriots 31-27 

NEW YORK GIANTS -1.5 at Miami: Giants have won five of the last six meetings and have never lost to the Dolphins in Miami. Ryan Tannehill may actually start looking like a viable NFL QB going against the Giants’ ropey defense, but the Dolphins have little to play for, while the Giants can still win the NFC East. Let’s make this easy: Giants win comfortably and the Christmas shopping will be paid for. One of our best bets of the week. NY Giants 28-21.

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NFL PICK SIX – Week 13 betting guide

Five weeks remain of the regular season. Carolina (11-0) is the lone unbeaten team and they can clinch the NFC South and a playoff spot with a win over New Orleans or an Atlanta loss.

MyClubBetting handicapper and Lindy’s Sports UK Editor Simon Milham takes a look at the betting trends and some of the best bets ahead of Week 13 of the 2015/16 NFL season. The odds are correct at the time of writing and are industry average.

(Handicap is denoted by +/- for the home team)


Friday, 01:30

(+3, Total Points 46.5)

Detroit (4-7) seeks its first sweep of NFC North rival Green Bay (7-4) for the first time in 25 years on Thursday night.

Jacksonville Jaguars v Detroit Lions
Injury concern: Calvin Johnson

After starting this season 1-7, the Lions have won three straight, starting with Week 10’s 18-16 win over the Packers at Lambeau Field, their first win over them since 1991.

The Packers have won one of their last five games, having started 6-0 but are considered a field-goal favourite, largely because of several Detroit injuries on both sides of the ball.

Top receiver Calvin Johnson is hobbled with an ankle injury, as is safety Glover Quin, receiver Lance Moore, defensive tackle Caruan Reid, defensive tackle Gabe Wright and center Travis Swanson.

Several of those injuries, particularly to Quin and Johnson, are not considered serious and they are expected to play.

Green Bay lost 17-13 at home to Chicago last Thursday, while Detroit wacked Philadelphia 45-14, recording their third consecutive win since losing 45-10 to Kansas City in London.

Packers were dismal in their upset loss at 8.5-point favourites, going 3-for11 on third downs and QB Aaron Rodgers completed a season-low 51.2 percent of his passes for just 202 yards and one touchdown. He also tossed an interception.

The Packers, who also have injury concerns over star linebacker Julius Pepers, starting tackle Brian Bulaga, centre Corey Linsley and receiver Ty Montgomery, will be able to get back on track with a less-than-comprehensive win. It will be a battle but an ugly win is still a win.


Sunday, 18:00

(-1.5, Total Points 41.5)

Seattle has never lost on back-to-back trips to Minnesota and only once in 13 meetings has the points total gone below the current 41-point line. Nice trends, if they hold.

Russell Wilson
Leading the Seahawks: Russell Wilson

The Vikings have been a nice surprise this term in reaching a record of 8-3, but they are 2-2 against quality opponents (teams with a winning record). They are in pole position in the NFC North, a game ahead of Green Bay.

The Vikings have held seven opponents to 19 points or fewer and only Carolina run the ball more than Minnesota’s 51 percent of its plays.

NFC champion Seattle (6-5) are 1-4 against quality opponents, although three of those losses came by a one-score margin. They should make the playoffs via the wildcard route, as their run-in sees them facing the likes of Baltimore, Cleveland and St Louis, who have a combined 10-23 record.

Seattle ranks second in the NFL in rushing at 144.2 yards per game and are fifth in stopping the run (92.9 ypg). Minnesota boasts the top-rated rushing attack (146.4 ypg), with Adrian Peterson leading the way. However, they average just 21 points per game and their run defence ranks a lowly 20th (110.6 ypg).

The Vikings, 4-1 at home, are vulnerable and the Seahawks, who outlasted the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend, are at an advantage playing outdoors. It should be a belting game, with Seattle fancied for the win.
BEST BET: SEATTLE +1.5 @1.80


Sunday, 18:00

(-3.5, Total Points 43.5)

This could be the best bet of the week or the worst.

The last time Miami made a coaching change, they scored 90 points in the two-week span. The Dolphins lost their fourth game in five weeks when swept by the New York Jets last weekend, prompting the dismissal of offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and the promotion of quarterbacks coach Zac Taylor.

Ryan Tannehill 4
Simplified playbook: Ryan Tannehill

Baltimore won their last two games but lost QB Joe Flacco for the season. In his first game since 2013, Matt Schaub threw two touchdown passes to lead the Ravens to a 34-27 win at Cleveland on Monday night.

The Ravens have won six of the last seven meetings with the Dolphins, including the last four meetings in Miami, scoring at least 26 points in the process, yet this a down year. The Ravens have won the same number of games as the Dolphins (four) and both look well adrift in the race for a wildcard spot.

There is little riding on this and it won’t be a game on everyone’s radar. But Miami have homefield advantage and if Ryan Tannehill can be made to feel more comfortable in terms of play-calling – the pressure will be off him, as the fins attempt to find a running game – they hosts can win for a change, blowing a better chance to get a higher draft pick. How typically Dolphins-like would that be?
BEST BET: MIAMI -3.5 @ 1.92


Sunday, 18:00

(+2.5, Total Points 43.5)

They share Met Life Stadium but the Giants will be the host for a rare regular-season match-up. The Jets have lost the last five meetings, although this will be the first serious clash between the two since 2011.

Eli Manning
Eli Manning: Home comfort

Jets come into this having swept the Miami Dolphins with a 38-20 win last weekend in an AFC East clash that was never much of a contest from the outset.

The Giants dropped to 5-6 for the season after a 20-14 defeat at Washington, but still share the lead in the NFC East with the Redskins.

The Jets had been spiralling before picking on easy prey Miami and, with just five games remaining, we do not feel as though they should be considered 2.5-point favourites for this pivotal match-up.

Giants need this to remain in contention for the division title and a play-off place, as their record will not be good enough to secure a wild-card. The Jets’ only way to the post-season is via wildcard in a crowded AFC.

We do not feel the Jets’ passing game is good enough to keep pace with the sixth-ranked Giants’ attack.
BEST BET: NY GIANTS +2.5 @ 1.80


Sunday, 21:05

(+4, Total Points 43)

Denver, fresh from ending the New England Patriots’ unbeaten record, hope to create another piece of history on Sunday when they travel to San Diego.

Philip Rivers
Good season: Philip Rivers

The Broncos have won an NFL-record 14 consecutive division road games dating back to 2011.

Yet for all their recent success against the Chargers – they have won seven of the last eight meetings – the Broncos have never won five consecutive games at San Diego.

The Broncos are coming off an emotion-charged win over the Patriots and a let-down is possible. Despite the fact that the Chargers have a 4-7 record, QB Philip Rivers is having one of his best seasons.

He threw for 300 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions against the Jaguars last week. He trails only Tom Brady in passing yards and he’s second to Drew Brees in competition percentage.

Remarkably, Rivers has played behind a makeshift offensive line, and the Chargers were down to just two offensive linemen against Jacksonville, with left tackle King Dunlap and right guard D.J. Fluker sitting out with injuries.

The biggest problem with the Chargers is their defense. Opponents average 27.9 points per game against them this season.

Denver is in transition at the quarterback position. They seem in no hurry to decide whether veteran Peyton Manning or fourth-year man Brock Osweiler will be the long-term solution.

Osweiler has led the Broncos to victories in each of his two career starts, but he is still effectively a rookie at this level.

The real battle will be between Rivers and Denver’s excellent defense, and it may be worth taking a chance that the host Chargers can raise their game against a team who may well have an emotional dip.

San Diego could be catching their AFC West division rival at exactly the right time.
BET BET: SAN DIEGO +4 @ 2.00


Tuesday, 01:30

(+4.5, Total Points 42)

We fully expected Dallas to lose to unbeaten Carolina last week in their Thanksgiving Day match-up – and they duly did, with Tony Romo having one of his worst halves of his career helping the Panthers to an easy 33-14 win.

Matt Cassel
Matt Cassel: Taking the reins

That defeat, to any team outside the NFC East, would have been a killer blow to their playoff chances. However, that division is the worst in football, with no team having as many wins as losses.

The Cowboys own a 3-8 record, while the Washington Redskins head the division with a 5-6 record. There is still a lot of football still to play.

Washington is 5-1 at home this season – their sole loss coming to Miami at home in Week 1 – and part of the reason for their success is quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has thrown 173 consecutive passes at home without an interception in those five successive victories. He is averaging 272 yards passing per home tilt.

The Redskins have been able to utilise Cousins as a game-manager rather than game winner, thanks to an imposing a successful  running game by committee approach with Matt Jones (351 yards), Alfred Morris (1,613 yards) and Chris Thompson (191 yards).

The last time Washington had a 5-1 home record, they went to the playoffs (1992), and having beaten the New York Giants 20-14 last week, they have beaten NFC East foes back-to-back. The last time they did that, they went to the playoffs (2012).

But while the Cowboys’ playoff hopes will still be mathematically alive even if they lose to Washington, their chances have greatly decreased after QB Tony Romo suffered his second collarbone fracture since September in the Carolina loss. Back-up Matt Cassel is 0-4 as starter in relief.

Bettors must decide what the Cowboys’ mind-set will be. They still have a big chance of making the playoff party but, equally, they could tank and increase their chance of taking a top QB prospect in the draft. We are taking a chance with the ‘Boys to keep their season alive with a narrow win.
BEST BET: DALLAS +4.5 @ 1.91


BUFFALO -3 over Houston: Houston is riding a four-game winning streak and the Bills’ lauded defense is not getting pressure up front. The Texans have won the last three in the series, but the Bills return home after three road games (they are also on the road the next two weeks) and we fancy their running game to pay dividends. Bills 27-23

ST LOUIS +5.5 over Arizona: Tough call. Not a game we’d get too involved in. The Rams are at home and have game-breaking speed in some skill areas, plus an elite back in Todd Gurley. The Cardinals are in charge of the NFC West and are flat-out better in all areas. They have also won eight of the last 10 meetings in St Louis. Take the points and pray. Cardinals 27-23

TAMPA BAY -1 over Atlanta: Falcons have won back-to-back games in Atlanta just once since 1995 and have won one of their last five. The Buccaneers have won three of their last five and as long as QB Jameis Winston limits his mistakes, they can get right back into the wildcard race with a win. Buccaneers 31-24

CLEVELAND +9.5 over Cincinnati: Cleveland finds new and interesting ways to lose on almost a weekly basis. Their heart-breaking blocked-field-goal-returned-for-a-touchdown as time expired last week against the Ravens summed this franchise up perfectly. The Bengals will take this clown of a franchise lightly and a garbage-time TD might blow the handicap. Bengals 27-19

TENNESSEE -2.5 over Jacksonville: Since 2006, the Jaguars have gone LWLLWLLWL in trips to Tennessee. So, by that written-in-Crayola-by-a-five-year-old statistic, the Jaguars are due to lose again. You can tell we are none too enamoured by this game. Titans’ defense will stiffen when it matters most. Titans 22-17

CHICAGO -6.5 over San Francisco: The Bears shocked Green Bay on Thanksgiving to make themselves relevant in the NFC playoff chase at 5-6. Their pass rush is good enough to keep the 49ers – who have a poor historical record at Soldier Field – from keeping pace with Jay Cutler. Yes. We actually wrote that. Bears 31-17

KANSAS CITY -3 at Oakland: The Raiders and Chiefs are very much in the mix for a wildcard in the AFC but win for the Chiefs can give them the inside track. Their offensive line issues, so problematic early in the season, appear to have been addressed and they are on a five-game winning streak. Their record at Oakland since 2009 reads: WLWLWL – again, it is a silly trend to follow that they should win again, but we’ll following it anyway. Stupid is as stupid does, right? Chiefs 33-24

NEW ORLEANS +7 over Carolina: Then there was one. Carolina is the sole remaining unbeaten team in the NFL after man-handling Dallas. New Orleans is going nowhere at 4-7 and their playoff hopes will be extinguished should they lose. They have won three of five at home and the Panthers have often struggled in the Superdome. Still, we don’t see them losing. The line is about right and either Carolina will win in a blowout or play below their true level. We take a chance on the latter. Panthers 28-23

NEW ENGLAND -9.5 over Philadelphia: Given that New England has been pole-axed by injuries to its receiving corps, we are not too sure why the line is so big, even given Philadelphia’s tail-spin. Still, you wouldn’t want to face Tom Brady and Bill Belichick on a good day, never mind in an ornery mood. You think losing their shot at a perfect season hasn’t wounded them? If you think an ego their size hasn’t been bruised, you’d be sorely wrong. Patriots 38-14

PITTSBURGH -6.6 over Indianapolis: The Steelers limped home after their 39-30 loss to Seattle and face a Colts team that has won their last three on the arm of a 40-year-old back-up QB Matt Hasselbeck. Both teams are 6-5 and in the hunt for a playoff place. Colts have lost nine of their last 10 trips to Steeltown and we see plenty of unexpected promise in the Pittsburgh defense. Steelers 31 Colts 20

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NFL PICK SIX – Your Thanksgiving Week betting guide

Lions Thanksgiving
Tradition: Giving thanks for Football on Turkey Day

Six weeks remain of the regular season. Two teams remain unbeaten: Carolina (10-0) and New England (10-0) – and this marks the fourth season in league history with multiple 10-0 teams (1934, 1990, 2009).

Entering 2015, 15 teams in the Super Bowl era started 10-0. Of those 15 clubs, all 15 made the playoffs, nine advanced to the Super Bowl and six won the Super Bowl.

MyClubBetting handicapper and Lindy’s Sports UK Editor Simon Milham takes a look at the betting trends and some of the best bets ahead of Week 12 of the 2015/16 NFL season, starting with the three Thanksgiving Day games. The odds are correct at the time of writing and are industry average.

(Handicap is denoted by +/- for the home team)


Thursday, 17:30

(+1, Total Points 46)

Philadelphia (4-6) have lost three of their last four games, but are still only a game out of first place in the weak NFC East division. Since being beaten 45-10 by Kansas City in the third of the International Series of games at Wembley, Detroit (3-7) have won two consecutive games but may well struggle to gain a post-season berth.

Mark Sanchez
Another opportunity: Mark Sanchez

The Eagles have won seven of the last eight meetings with the Lions but they have been hit hard with significant injuries at key positions, particularly at the QB position, with Mark Sanchez now deputising for Sam Bradford.

Philadelphia enters the game following a 45-17 home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That followed a 20-19 home defeat by the Miami Dolphins.

“You have to be a pro and move on,” said quarterback Sanchez, who passed for 261 yards and two touchdowns against the Buccaneers. “We are going to get another chance to play on Thanksgiving, which is going to be great. You get to have your family back at home watching, and then get a mini-bye the week after that. This could be the start of something good. We’ll figure it out and try to get a win on Thursday.”

Philadelphia, who is undefeated in Thanksgiving Day games, plays on the holiday for the second consecutive season. Last season, the Eagles defeated the Dallas Cowboys 33-10 at AT&T Stadium. Philadelphia has the highest winning percentage among active NFL franchises on Thanksgiving, winning all six contests on this special day.

The Lions, who will play their 76th Thanksgiving Day game dating back to 1934 (with a record of 35-38-2), have won four of the last 18 clashes with the Eagles.

Quarterback Matt Stafford has passed for 1,650 yards in five career games on Thanksgiving Day, the third-most in NFL history. In his past three games on Thanksgiving, Stafford has seven touchdown passes and only two interceptions for a 98.4 passer rating. He aims for his fourth consecutive Thanksgiving game with at least 330 passing yards.

Matt Stafford
Stafford: Interceptions

Yet Stafford has not been helped by a ropey offensive line this season and has tossed 12 interceptions. The Lions have managed just 19, 10, 18 and 18 points in the last four games. In fact, they have only scored more than 19 points twice in the last 10 games. They have averaged just 71.1 yards per game on the ground, so the Lions’ chances will again be on Stafford’s shoulders.

The Eagles are in a slump and the Lions are on a high, but we tentatively put faith in Philadelphia’s balanced attack to eke out victory in the first of the Turkey Day games.





Thursday, 21:30

(+1, Total Points 45.5)

We do not quite understand how the 10-0 Carolina Panthers opened as underdogs (the line has subsequently moved a point and a half) to beat the Dallas Cowboys (3-7), given that the hosts barely scraped past an ordinary Dolphins outfit in quarterback Tony Romo’s return to action on Sunday.

Tony Romo
Happy return: Romo and Dallas overcame the Dolphins

That was the elite passer’s first game back after a seven-week absence – in which time Dallas lost all seven games. Yet Romo was pressured all game and still looked tentative when faced with a defense that is ranked in the bottom third of the NFL.

The Cowboys enter their matchup against the Panthers having won six of their past nine on Thanksgiving.

Romo has led the Cowboys to six wins in eight Thanksgiving starts. For his career, Romo has passed for 2,232 yards and 18 touchdowns on Thanksgiving, both the most all-time on the holiday.

Carolina’s third-ranked defense is a different beast entirely. They concede an average of 19.1 points per game (ranked 5th), 322.8 yards per game (4th), 228.3 passing yards per contest (7th) and 94.5 rushing yards per tilt (8th).

They are coming off a 44-16 mauling of the Washington Redskins and are vastly underrated by the betting public and Las Vegas oddsmakers.

Mike Shula
Outstanding job: Mike Shula

And it is not just the defense that is firing. While the Panthers do not boast an elite receiver, offensive coordinator Mike Shula has done an excellent job of game-planning and utilising quarterback Cam Newton’s skills.

Newton, who now has 102 passing touchdowns and 39 rushing touchdowns, is the only player in NFL history with at least 100 passing touchdowns and 25 rushing touchdowns in his first five seasons.

The Panthers do not get the recognition they deserve and are the best team in the NFL right now. Nationally, they have the opportunity to prove that point – and they should do so in style.
The line worries us – the Panthers should be between 3-7-point favourites. Part of the reason is history. The Panthers have only defeated the Cowboys once in the last 10 meetings and have lost on their last four trips to Dallas.

Ordinarily, we would suggest keeping stakes low or avoid the game altogether. Yet these Panthers are for real and only the pressure to remain unbeaten will see their chances scuppered. They can cover and win with plenty to spare, history be damned.




Friday, 01:30

(-8.5, Total Points 47)

Green Bay took control of the NFC North with a 30-13 win over Minnesota last Sunday.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers passed for 212 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings. Wide receiver James Jones had six receptions for 109 yards and a touchdown in the game. Jones now has seven touchdown receptions this season, which is tied for second in the NFC.

Eddie Lacy
Carrying the load: Eddie Lacy

Running back Eddie Lacy added 100 rushing yards in the victory, his first 100-yard rushing performance this season.

The Packers will host their first Thanksgiving Day game since 1923 when they defeated the Hammond Pros 19-0 at Bellevue Park in Green Bay. These teams play each other for a NFL-record 192nd time on Thursday.

Adding to the occasion, the Packers will honour former quarterback Brett Favre during a halftime ceremony. Favre’s name and retired No. 4 jersey will be unveiled on Lambeau Field’s north facade during halftime. Favre, who played in four Thanksgiving Day games in his career, is one of six Packers legends to have their number retired.

Rodgers will not want to be upstaged, however. We expect him to have a big night.

Brett Favre
Honoured: Brett Favre

The Bears gave the Denver Broncos a fright before succumbing 17-15 at Soldier Field on Sunday, dropping their record to 4-6. While they are not entirely out of the NFC North race, a wildcard spot is perhaps the best they can hope for.

The Bears have a 16-15-2 record on Thanksgiving, but this is the 12th consecutive week that the Bears have been made underdogs

This game mark the fifth time this season the Packers have been favoured by more than a touchdown. Green Bay covered the spread in double-digit wins over San Francisco and St. Louis, but didn’t cover as 10.5-point favourites over San Diego and Detroit. Sunday’s win was the first time in five games that Packers covered the spread.

Meanwhile, the Bears have covered the handicap or have fallen on the line (handicap push) in six of the last seven games.

Jay Cutler heads into the game against the Packers with a 95.2 passer rating in his last seven games (11 touchdowns, four interceptions). Rodgers has an 89.8 rating (13 touchdowns, three interceptions) in the same span.

However, Cutler is 1-11 against the Packers, who beat the Bears 31-23 at Soldier Field in the season opener.

This time it could be a little different, as nine of the Bears’ starters from Sunday’s loss to the Broncos did not start when the Bears hosted the Packers in the season-opener.

Wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and running back Matt Forte, who didn’t play Sunday because of groin and knee injuries, respectively, could return for the Bears, who could be a little beaten up after a bruising encounter with the Broncos, who boast one of the best defences in football.

As a result, we take the Packers to cover the handicap, with Rodgers having one of his better nights.


BEST BET: GREEN BAY -8.5 @ 1.92


Sunday, 18:00

(-3.5, Total Points 42.5)

The Miami Dolphins have won on their last three trips to AFC East rival New York Jets. The only time they have won on four consecutive visits was between 1970 and 1973.

Both teams are still in the hunt for a wildcard spot in the AFC, but neither will catch unbeaten division leaders New England.

Chris Ivory
Key man: Chris Ivory

The Jets, who started the season 4-1, are now on the playoff bubble at 5-5 and are coming off a 24-17 loss to the Houston Texans. They could be without center Nick Mangold and cornerback Darrelle Revis through injury.

However, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has thrown five touchdowns and four interceptions in the last two games, will continue to pull the strings.

The Jets have already beaten the Dolphins this season, winning 27-14 at Wembley Stadium. Neither team has played particularly well of late, with the Dolphins proving more inconsistent.

The Dolphins’ offensive play-calling has been interesting, to say the least. Ryan Tannehill, for all his many faults – holding the ball too long, inability to throw an accurate deep ball, persistently throwing behind his receivers in short to intermediate routes – does have good mobility and throws well on the run.

Given the dolphins’ inability to block, shifting the pocket would make plenty of sense. Instead, it appears as though the third-year passer is a tackling dummy, just waiting to be hit behind a line that cannot protect him.

The Jets have struggled offensively but the sieve-like Miami run defense is going to be tested and is just the antidote the Jets have been waiting for. Chris Ivory should go in plenty of fantasy teams this week after a lean spell.

The skinny: We don’t believe in Tannehill, who is clearly not the franchise QB the Dolphins had high hopes for. This is a bad team, lacking depth along both lines and their offense is struggling, even when their defense does manage to keep them in games.


BEST BET: NY JETS -3.5 @ 1.92


Sunday, 18:00

(+2, Total Points 44)

Despite their 18-13 defeat in Detroit, the Oakland Raiders (4-6) lost little ground in the AFC Wildcard race. They are still just a game behind four 5-5 teams and one 6-4 team vying for the two available post-season spots.

Derek Carr
Derek Carr: Oakland’s QB is on the rise

Tennessee (2-8) are three games behind the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South, a division in which no team boasts a winning record with six games of the regular season remaining. The Raiders have lost on five of their last six visits to Tennessee, including the last three clashes.

However, they have not dropped four consecutive meetings since 1961-62.

The Titans have played three of their last four on the road and their home tilt was against unbeaten Carolina (which they lost 27-10).

Indeed, they have lost all five home games thus far. Oakland’s three road defeats have come by a combined 10 points and they are value to bounce back.




Sunday, 18:00

(+2, Total Points 46.6)

Washington’s record against the Giants is poor, with just four wins in the last 19 meetings. Yet there is every reason to think the Redskins (4-6) can bounce back from a 16-44 loss to Carolina by splitting the season series with their NFC East rivals.

The Giants, coming off a bye week, are 5-5 and top the division. They drubbed the Redskins, 32-21, during their first encounter at the MetLife Stadium in a Week 3 Thursday night affair.

kirk cousins
Game manager: Kirk Cousins

Too much has been made about Washington starting Kirk Cousins at quarterback in preference to Robert Griffin III, as the Redskins have relied largely on their running game.

Although Cousins has thrown 10 interceptions and has had a tendency to turn the ball over in crucial situations, the running game could be key in this one.

For while the Giants have a respectable run defense, their reasonable stats are largely masked by the fact that teams know they can be passed upon. The Giants boast the 31st-ranked defense in the NFL and the last-ranked pass defense (averaging over 309.9 yards per game).

The Redskins have been poor on the road, going 0-5, but are 4-1 at home and the Giants have yet to bring much pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Consequently, the passers have had more time to find open receivers. Until the Giants find a consistent pass rush – the return of Jason Pierre-Paul has helped in the last couple of weeks – their secondary will remain susceptible.

Where we think the Redskins will have success is with bubble screen passes. Giants’ coordinator Steve Spangnuolo has been more aggressive with blitz package in the last couple of games, and the Redskins have pass-catching backs that can exploit any over-aggressiveness.

The Giants have also not finished drives. They are 25th in the league in red zone offense, scoring touchdowns on just 16 of 34 opportunities inside the 20 yard line.

We are taking a chance on the Redskins, given their poor record against the Giants. But we feel they will run the ball successfully enough to open up the passing lanes.




MINNESOTA +2 at Atlanta: Minnesota were put in their place by Green Bay last week, dropping their record against winning teams to 0-2. They can finally win one against a quality opponent this week at a venue where they have never tasted defeat on three successive occasions (two currently). Not a game to have a strong view about, however. Vikings 28-21

NEW ORLEANS +3 at Houston: Houston has shown signs of life with three successive wins and are still in with a chance of snatching the AFC South division. New Orleans, at 4-6, are simply looking to keep their season alive. Saints are 1-4 on the road but we like the points and the Saints could well win this outright. Saints 31-28

SAN DIEGO +4 at Jacksonville: Chargers are 2-8 but won four successive meetings. The Jaguars are a game behind Indianapolis and Houston in the race for the AFC South title, having won their last two. We are not sure what the Chargers’ mind-set will be, having dropped their last six. A long, cross-country trip might bring them together. Then again… Jaguars 24-21

ST LOUIS +9.5 at Cincinnati: The Rams have lost their last three, while the Bengals have dropped their last two, but still hold a two-game lead on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North. Rams have the running game to keep this competitive for a while, but their passing attack is ranked 32nd and if the Bengals get in front early, this could get away from St Louis. Bengals 24-16

INDIANAPOLIS -3 over Tampa Bay: Colts came back from a big deficit to win in Atlanta and 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck will continue to deputise for injured QB Andrew Luck. The Buccaneers thumped Philadelphia on the road, but rookie QB Jameis Winston will still suffer a few growing pains. This could be one of those days as the Colts’ running game sparks them to another win. Colts 19-16

SAN FRANCISCO +11.5 over Arizona: The Cardinals are being asked to give up a two-score handicap to a team that has beaten them on six successive occasions in San Francisco. The 49ers were whacked 47-7 in Arizona in September and while we see no reason why the gulf in class will have been bridged sufficiently, the Cards have yet to show they can dominate on the road. Cardinals 33-24

PITTSBURGH +4.5 at Seattle: Pittsburgh has lost six of its last seven trips to Seattle, but has won the last three meetings (including the 2006 Super Bowl). We’ve changed our minds over this one about 10 times in the last five minutes. Something isn’t quite right with the NFC champions and the Steelers’ defense has better than advertised. Seahawks 24-20

NEW ENGLAND -3 at Denver: The Patriots remain unbeaten with a 10-0 record but looked far from perfect in defeating Buffalo 20-13 on Monday night. The Broncos’ defense has been excellent this season, yet their vaunted attack has been more cup-cake than anvil. Can we trust Brock Osweiler to keep pace with Tom Brady and a depleted surrounding cast? Patriots have a yucky 3-15 record at Mile High since 1972. Maybe we can. Maybe Osweiler will yell “Belichick, Belichick,” at the line of scrimmage. Then again… Patriots 28-17

BALTIMORE +2.5 at Cleveland: With elite QB Joe Flacco done for the season and running back Justin Forsett also missing with a broken arm, against anyone else we’d say the Ravens were there for the taking. This game matters not a jot, save for securing a higher draft pick. The Browns need that more and will probably do what the Browns do best and find a new and creative way to lose. Baltimore 23-20

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NFL PICK SIX – Your betting guide to Week 11

Seven weeks remain of the regular season. Two teams remain unbeaten: Carolina (9-0) and New England (9-0) – and this marks the fourth season in league history with multiple 9-0 teams (1934, 1990, 2009).

Entering 2015, 19 teams in the Super Bowl era started 9-0. Of those 19 clubs, all 19 made the playoffs, 11 advanced to the Super Bowl and seven won the Super Bowl.

Since 1990, 21 teams have qualified for the playoffs with a losing record through nine games. At least one has done so in each of the last four seasons. Last year, Carolina (3-5-1) accomplished the feat and advanced to the NFC Divisional Playoffs. Entering Week 11, there are currently 23 teams with a 4-5 record or better.

MyClubBetting handicapper and Lindy’s Sports UK Editor Simon Milham takes a look at the betting trends and some of the best bets ahead of Week 11 of the 2015/16 NFL season. The odds are correct at the time of writing and are industry average.

(Handicap is denoted by +/- for the home team)

Allen Hurns 1
Allen Hurns: Sure-handed


Friday, 01:25

(-2.5, Total Points 42.5)

This isn’t a game that too many will be staying up to watch. Incredibly, Tennessee (2-7) and Jacksonville (3-6) are still in the mix for the AFC South title, with Houston (4-5) and Indianapolis (4-5 and minus injured QB Andrew Luck) tied at the top of the division.

Yet there is plenty to look forward to for fans of both teams, starting at the quarterback positions.

Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota had 13 touchdown passes in the first half of the season, which is the most of any rookie through his team’s first eight games in NFL history. He also has a 98.3 passer rating, which would rank third all-time among rookie quarterbacks.

Marcus Mariota 1
Great start: Marcus Mariota

He is the only rookie in NFL history to have two games with at least four touchdown passes and no interceptions. And 10 of his TDs have come on the road.

Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles has also looked the part this year after a difficult rookie season and has 19 TDs in nine starts, with 11 interceptions. He is the franchise QB the Jaguars have been looking for and they have started to build a frighteningly productive offense, with WRs Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson each snaring seven TDs.

They also have a decent ground game. Jaguars’ running back T.J. Yeldon has started all eight games in which he’s played for Jacksonville and leads AFC rookies with 531 rushing yards. He’s been a steady contributor this season, posting at least 60 scrimmage yards in seven of his eight games, including three 100-yard performances.

Seven of the last eight meetings in Tennessee saw 43 points or less scored and while Jacksonville have issues closing out games and protecting Bortles (he’s been sacked 83 times in a season and a half), the Titans do not have a dominant receiving corps or a consistent running game to help Mariota’s development. We take the Jaguars to win and cover.




Sunday, 18:00

(-0.5, Total Points 47.5)

The Dallas Cowboys (2-7) will travel to take on the Miami Dolphins (4-5) in a rematch of Super Bowl VI, won by the Cowboys (24-3). Do not rule out the Cowboys from winning the NFC East, even with their lowly record.

Tannehill 2
Ryan Tannehill: Struggling for consistency

Why? Tony Romo. The QB is set to return on Sunday, having missed the last seven games (all losses) through injury.

The Cowboys have one of the best offensive line in the NFC East and have a lot of experience at the skill positions. While they have had one of the toughest schedules, it is about to get a lot easier.

The NFC East is headed by the New York Giants (5-5), with Washington (4-5) and Philadelphia (4-5, who have lost QB Sam Bradford) next in line. The odds about the Cowboys winning the division are 33-1 and while that looks big, the limitations of the other trio are there for all to see.

Victory over Miami would see those odds come tumbling and Miami has plenty of injury problems, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, with DE Cameron Wake on IR, linebacker Jelani Jenkins (ankle) and cornerback Brice McCain (knee) all likely to miss the game.

The Dolphins managed to win in Philadelphia last Sunday but were far from convincing and they cannot stop the run, giving up an average of 142.1 yards per game.

The Cowboys will need to establish the running game to keep the pressure off of a QB coming off a broken collarbone.

But while Miami’s defense might be in trouble, don’t expect Ryan Tannehill to bail them out – the QB is in his third season and is still plagued by inconsistency, despite having an effective receiving unit.

Miami may be still in the hunt for a wildcard, but they have lost four of the last five meetings and we simply do not think that Tannehill can take the game on his shoulders. Until he steps up and becomes a leader, we simply don’t trust these Dolphins.


BEST BET: DALLAS +0.5 @ 2.00


Sunday, 18:00

(-1.5, Total Points 41)

Denver (7-2) has lost two in a row, QB Peyton Manning is sidelined with a foot injury and with New England to come after this clash, suddenly the sky is falling in.

The Broncos do have a three-game lead on Kansas City in the AFC West and on one of the best defences in the AFC.

The Broncos, who have lost four of their last five meetings in Chicago, come up against former head coach John Fox and former offensive coordinator Adam Gase for the first time since their departure in February.

Adam Gase
Adam Gase: Rising star in the coaching ranks

It will also be a first for Chicago QB Jay Cutler – he gets to face the Broncos for the first time since he was controversially traded in April 2009. The Bears (4-5) are one of seven teams in the NFC who have four wins, but both the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons are two games ahead of them in the race for the wildcard spots.

The Bears are 1-3 at home, having managed to score 23, 23, 22 and 20 points at Soldier Field. But since Week 4, they have been competitive in every game, with five of their six subsequent games settled by three points or less (they are 3-2 in those games) and they enter this on a back of a 37-13 win at San Diego.

We see a low-scoring game. The Broncos have not managed to win the ball with any degree of authority and the Bears will stack the box, daring Brock Osweiler to beat them through the air.

Matt Forte is likely to return after a knee injury and may be just the boost Chicago needs, despite rave reviews for Michigan State rookie Jeremy Langford, who has done an excellent job in relief over the last couple of weeks.

Bears have their tails up and while this is a tricky game to call, we still think that planning for the Broncos’ defense will cause Gase and Cutler a few sleepless nights. Denver can win this in a close, low-scoring contest.


BEST BET: DENVER +1.5 @ 1.92


Sunday, 18:00

(+1, Total Points 48.5)

Expect a shoot-out as the Oakland Raiders (4-5) take on the Detroit Lions (2-7) and it may not be all one-way traffic.

Last week, the Lions won at Green Bay for the first time since 1991 in a bounce-back performance following their 45-10 defeat by Kansas City at Wembley. Yet they still possess one of the worst rushing attacks in the league.

Rodney Hudson
Rodney Hudson: Overlooked key for Raiders

Oakland are in the thick of the AFC wildcard hunt but have been weakened by the loss of linebacker and top pass rusher Aldon Smith, who was suspended for a year for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy after being arrested on August 6 on drunk-driving charges – his third such arrest (and fifth overall) since 2012.

The Raiders’ pass-blocking and run game has also struggled without center Rodney Hudson, who sat out practice again on Wednesday with an ankle sprain. He is listed as questionable to start.

Their questionable cornerbacks should also mean that Lions’ passer Matt Stafford should have a big day and, equally, Detroit’s paper-thin run defense should see Raiders’ running back Latavius Murray may hay. The Lions have allowed a league-high 12 rushing touchdowns this season and Murray is averaging a decent 4.7 yards per carry.

Yet their propensity to pass – they threw the ball 43 times against the Vikings last week (and had 19 rushes), despite Minnesota playing a two-deep zone for much of the contest. Even though they have an excellent young quarterback in Derek Carr, they must commit to the run if they are to beat the Lions, but that is easier said than done if Hudson is sidelined

Still, we think the Raiders will be too strong for a Detroit team that will be playing its first of three home games in a 12-day stretch. The Lions’ depleted secondary will find it tough to handle receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.




Sunday, 21:25

(-1.5, Total Points 44.5)

Many people are wondering what has happened to the Green Bay Packers over the last two weeks. Two defeats – including last Sunday’s home shocker to the Detroit Lions, who had not won at Lambeau Field since 1991 – poses plenty of questions.

Aaron Rodgers 2
Simply the best: Aaron Rodgers can bounce back

The truth is, Green Bay have played a relatively soft schedule. They are 6-1 against teams with a losing record and 0-2 against teams with a winning record. In racing parlance, they are flat track bullies.

If Green Bay are paper tigers, similar sentiments apply to the Minnesota Vikings, who now lead the Packers by a game in the NFC North with a 7-2 record. The Vikings are 0-1 against teams with a winning record and 7-1 against teams with a losing record.

The Packers have lost one of the last 11 meetings and four of the last 19 clashes. They are 1.5-point underdogs on the road but it is rare to see the Pack lose three on the bounce and Aaron Rodgers and company can take care of business.


BEST BET: GREEN BAY +1.5 @ 1.92


Sunday, 18:00

(-5.5, Total Points 45.5)

While back-up passer Mark Sanchez will start for the Philadelphia Eagles (4-5), they could still be a great bet to see off the Buccaneers. The running game should be able to roll and the Eagles’ defense is legitimate, their front seven – especially their young line – is very good.

Look for the impactful interior lineman Bennie Logan as a key component in slowing down Buccaneers’ top rushing threat Doug Martin.

Bennie Logan
Difference-maker: Bennie Logan can be a major force

The Eagles threw away an easily winnable game against the Miami Dolphins last week with a desperate performance. There has been a marked drop-off in production from the offense, which lacks talent. The offensive line has struggled to block in the absence of starting left tackle Jason Peters and the receivers have dropped passes all year.

However, no-one really knows what to expect from Philly. If DeMarco Murray gets into a rhythm early, it will help Chip Kelly’s fast-paced attack.

If he doesn’t, then we could see the Eagles passing close to 45-50 times and we’d wager that they will come out passing in a bid to help the running game.

The Bucs do not have a ton of experience in their front seven and they will be kept off balance by an up-tempo attack, especially since they don’t have a good track record of rushing the passer.

We think we will see plenty of scat-back Darren Sproles and an easier-than-anticipated win for the Eagles.




ATLANTA -5.5 over Indianapolis: Colts (4-5) have only lost once in eight trips to Atlanta (6-3) but they start 40-year-old QB Matt Hasselbeck, who guided them to back-to-back wins over Jacksonville and Houston. Julio Jones against a 26th-ranked pass defence which could be without Safety Mike Adams is a big miss-match. Falcons 31-20

BALTIMORE -2.5 over St Louis: The home team has won four of the last five in the series and the Ravens are not as bad as their (2-7) record would suggest. Every Ravens game this season has been decided by eight points or fewer and they are finding new and creative ways to lose late. Still, their 0-4 ATS home record has to change soon. May as well be on Sunday. Ravens 23-17

WASHINGTON +7.5 at Carolina: The Panthers have won four of the last five meetings but traditionally there has been little between them, with eight of the last 11 meetings settled by four points or less. Can Panthers remain unbeaten? Probably. May not be without a scare, though. Panthers 24-20

SEATTLE -12.5 over San Francisco: There is a lot of pent-up frustration from the Legion Of Boom. The Seahawks had their tails handed to them by Arizona last week. The 49ers are meeting the NFC champs at the wrong moment. Seahawks 28-10

CINCINNATI +5 at Arizona: Two Super Bowl contenders? The Cardinals (7-2) are for real and the Bengals (8-1) are not as bad as Monday’s stunning home defeat by Houston would suggest. Can QB Carson Palmer put one over on his old Bengals’ team-mates? That will be the storyline. The Bengals have the weapons to exploit the Cards’ only real weakness – run defense. Bengals 26-23 OT

NEW ENGLAND -7 over Buffalo: And then there was one. The Patriots are hurting – replacing WR Julian Edelman is not going to be easy – and one of only two remaining unbeaten records could go. Then again, Tom Brady is 24-3 all-time against the Bills and 12-1 in seasonal rematches with them. Who are we kidding? New England 37-24

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