NCAA College Football – Week 7 preview

We take a look at some of the big College Football week 7 match-ups this weekend…

AUBURN at MISSISSIPPI STATE (+3) (Sat, 8.30pm)

A win over Auburn on Saturday would be Mississippi State’s third this season over a team that was ranked in the Top 10.

Both appear evenly matched. Both comfortably defeated LSU. Both won at home against another SEC West opponent (Texas A&M and Arkansas). Auburn’s win at ranked Kansas State is the only significant schedule difference.

Mississippi State has given up almost 130 more passing yards per game. Converting third down chances, the Tigers rank third, while the Bulldogs rank 68th. In total defence, Auburn is 14th; State is 84th. Auburn ranks fourth in punt returns compared to State at 70th. And, the Tigers lead the nation, scoring 100 percent of the time from the red zone.

The odds favour Auburn, who are 3-point favourites at current odds of 24/25. The Under/Over is 63 points. At 17/20.

Homefield advantage might count for a lot. The last time Auburn played at MSU they lost by 18 points. On the flip side, they have won 17 of their last 19, including eight over ranked teams.

MSU could be this year’s team of destiny. They beat LSU 34-29 in Baton Rouge and followed that up with a 48-31 demolition of Texas A&M to jump to No3 in the AP polls. Then again, the second-ranked Tigers know all about starts aligning and their defence can step up when it matters most. Take the Tigers to cover the spread.

TCU at BAYLOR (-8) (Sat, 8.30pm)

Baylor (5-0) and TCU (4-0) represent the Big 12′s two best bets to make the College Football Playoff, but one will fall off their undefeated perch this weekend.

The Bears and Horned Frogs pulled off an unlikely feat as Baylor went to Texas and defeated the Longhorns, while TCU won a home game against Oklahoma last week. While the wins are not so unlikely, it makes it a better matchup than the annual Texas vs. Oklahoma Red River Rivalry this week.

TCU are considered 8-point underdogs which seems fair, especially when factoring that Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty should rebound from a 7-for-22, 111-yard performance against Texas.

But while the Horned Frogs have covered the handicap on six of their last seven meetings, the home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings and we take Baylor to continue that trend.

FLORIDA STATE at SYRACUSE (+23.5) (Sat, 5pm)

When there is a sudden shift in the handicap, as a rule you should swerve the game.

When the MyClubBetting lines opened for this clash, No1-ranked, unbeaten Florida State were considered 20-point favourites, despite injury to starting centre Austin Barron, who was lost midway through their 43-3 win over Wake Forest, star receiver Rashad Greene (concussion) and running back Karlos Williams (ankle). All will be missing this weekend.

But the shift to 23.5-point favourites is due to a sudden change at the offensive co-ordinator position at Syracuse; on Monday head coach Scott Shafer demoted offensive coordinator George McDonald and promoted Tim Lester.

The Seminoles’ defence may feel they will have it easy, as the Orange, mired in a three-game losing streak, lost starting quarterback Terel Hunt, who suffered a fracture leg in last weekend’s 28-16 loss to Louisville.

If the Seminoles’ defence does not take Syracuse too lightly, they should extend their streak to NCAA-leading 22nd victory in a row dating back to 2012 and cover the spread – but don’t bank on it.

NORTH CAROLINA at NOTRE DAME (-16.5) (Sat, 8.30) – Under is 7-1 in Fighting Irish last 8 games in October. Take that trend to end, as this has all the makings of being a points-fest. Go over 64.5 points at 17/20.

TEXAS at OKLAHOMA (-14.5) (Sat, 5pm) – Texas won this last year 36-20 and while the Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October, normal service should be resumed, with Oklahoma taking their fourth win in five meetings and covering the spread to give them a 4-1-1 ATS record in the last six meetings.

DUKE at GEORGIA TECH (+3) (Sat, 5.30) – Duke have lost their last 10 meetings and have won 1 in the last 19 but the tide could be about to turn. The Blue Devils are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and the favourite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Trends are made to be broken, but this is the best Duke offensive unit for a long while and they can outgun the Yellow Jackets.

OREGON at UCLA (+2.5) (Sat, 8.30) – Points. Points. Points. Blink and you will miss them. The line is set at 70 – and that could be eclipsed by the end of the third quarter. The Ducks are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Los Angeles and expect QB Marcus Mariota, who could easily have been the No.1 Draft pick had he chosen to go to the NFL, to produce big numbers.

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